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Ukraine still has doubts, despite US-NATO arms deal

2025-08-05 07:50:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

An agreement was reached in early July under which European NATO allies will buy American weapons, including Patriot missiles, for Ukraine. Although Germany recently announced that two Patriot systems will soon be sent to Kiev, there are still doubts whether this deal will give Ukraine what it needs in the coming months.

The agreement, announced by US President Donald Trump and NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington on July 14, is essentially a continuation of the modus operandi that Western allies have followed since Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than three years ago: the Europeans send Kiev military equipment they have available and then replace it with new – mostly American – weapons.

The big difference now is that the Europeans must significantly increase arms shipments to Ukraine, as the Trump administration has so far made no new promises. (Deliveries promised during the Biden administration, however, are still ongoing.)

To some extent, Europeans have increased production to fill the gap. The Kiel Institute, based in Germany, notes that for the first time since June 2022, Europe has surpassed the US in military aid to Ukraine, with 72 billion euros, compared to 65 billion euros from Washington.

The question for Ukraine and its allies is: how sustainable will this mechanism be? In the long run, Europeans will have to buy more weapons, having pledged to spend 5 percent of their Gross Domestic Product (GDP) on defense by 2034 at the NATO summit in The Hague in June.

Weapons for Ukraine will be a key part of this spending.

A diplomat from an EU country, speaking anonymously to Radio Free Europe, said the July agreement in Washington is the best way to keep "Americans engaged in Ukraine in particular and in Europe in general," as the United States will benefit from the expected increase in European defense spending.

And while Europe is keen to invest in its own defense sector, it will take time. European leaders have decided that, at least temporarily, it is better to buy from the US.

“It’s either this or we leave Ukraine without weapons,” a NATO official told REL, speaking on condition of anonymity because he is not authorized to speak publicly.

"I think there is a painful awareness on the European side that this has to happen one way or another," he added.

On July 21, the Contact Group on the Defense of Ukraine – an alliance of more than 50 states, including all NATO member states and several non-member partners – met online for the first time since the agreement was announced in Washington.

At this meeting, which was the main coordinator of Western arms deliveries to Kiev, up to seven countries expressed interest in purchasing American weapons for Ukraine. These included Canada, Belgium, Germany, the Netherlands and several Nordic countries.

The outcome of the Contact Group meeting, also known as the Ramstein group, was that Ukraine would prepare a “detailed wish list” of what it needs, with a particular emphasis on air defense and ammunition. NATO, in turn, would provide an estimate of the cost of this military equipment.

More clarity is expected when the Ramstein band meets again in the fall, perhaps for the first time in Ukraine.

The main question now is how quickly this military equipment can be delivered to Ukraine. European countries are expected to supply it with 2 million 155-millimeter artillery shells this year, and as Ukraine is starting domestic production with Western financial support, the shortage caused by the US export ban could be covered.

But for air defense, the situation is more complicated. And it is here that Ukraine still needs American weapons, especially Patriot surface-to-air missiles.

The European alternative to the American Patriot system, the Franco-Italian SAMP-T system, has been delivered to Kiev. Rome recently announced that the third battery will be delivered in the fall. But according to NATO diplomats, the production of the necessary interceptors and the entire configuration of the system takes longer than with the Patriots. Moreover, Kiev itself has questioned the impact of the European system.

When Trump and Rutte appeared before the media to announce the deal on July 14, the US president mentioned that 17 Patriot systems could be prepared to be purchased for Ukraine.

Last week, Germany announced that it would send two batteries to Ukraine soon, but it is not clear where the other systems will come from. Currently, six European countries – Germany, Greece, the Netherlands, Poland, Romania and Spain – operate Patriot systems, but these countries fear that sending them to Ukraine could leave their airspace unprotected.

Lockheed Martin and Raytheon, the two main manufacturers of Patriots, are increasing production to meet European demands, but Ukraine, which is under constant attack from Russia, is unlikely to feel the benefits of this increase anytime soon./ REL