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Tight poll results/ Quiet race on the horizon for the US

2024-11-05 10:54:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Tight poll results/ Quiet race on the horizon for the US

Polling, even at the best of times, is an inexact science.

Pollsters adjust their raw data based on assumptions about who will actually vote, who will stay home, and whether the information collected is an accurate representation of the larger voting public.

The outcome of these assumptions can dramatically change poll results - and we're not taking into account that every poll has a basic statistical "margin of error" here.

Polls in this presidential race — especially in key battleground states — show a statistical closeness that is within the margin of error, even setting aside pollsters' choices about how to adjust their results.

That means, at least based on the polls, that it's basically impossible to tell whether one candidate or another has a better chance of winning.

That's not to say that once the fog clears, there won't be a clear winner, as all swing states can explode toward a candidate—in fact, it often does.





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