Warning of record global temperatures as chance of very strong El Nino increases

2026-05-14 17:40:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

New forecasts show growing confidence that the developing El Nino in the tropical Pacific Ocean could be one of the strongest ever recorded, with warnings of record global temperatures and major humanitarian impacts.

Parts of the Pacific have been warming rapidly, with data this week showing sea surface temperatures about 0.5 degrees Celsius above normal - a threshold used to suggest the start of El Nino, a natural warming of the Pacific.

It is expected to strengthen over the next few months, potentially peaking as a very strong El Nino - or so-called super El Nino - in the fall.

Scientists are concerned about the consequences it could have on global weather patterns, including the possibility that 2027 could be the warmest year ever recorded.

In their latest forecast, the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) suggests that El Nino will begin within the month.

They have increased their confidence to a two-in-three chance that it will be strong or even very strong by this winter.

The rate of warming observed in the tropical Pacific over the past few weeks has been rapid.

Nathanial Johnson, a meteorologist at NOAA described it as a "rare event" if it were to continue at the current pace - going from the La Nina (a similar cooling pattern) we saw in the winter to a potentially strong El Nino, within a year.

The Bureau of Meteorology (BoM) in Australia also predicts El Nino using a slightly stricter criterion, where sea surface temperatures in the tropical Pacific must exceed 0.8 degrees Celsius above average.

They are also looking for indications that the trade winds in the western Pacific have reversed; signaling that the warming ocean is starting to affect the atmosphere.

Spring forecasts for El Nino have historically been quite weak, but weather forecasters have been much more confident than normal this year.

What is a strong El Nino?
As El Nino forms across the tropical Pacific, weather forecasters examine one region in particular called Nino3.4, by monitoring a quarterly average of sea surface temperatures compared to the long-term average.

A strong El Nino or 'super El Nino' ??is when temperatures go above 1.5 degrees Celsius.

Forecasts from the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF), NOAA and the BoM are all almost aligned in their results.

In the latest forecast from ECMWF, more than half of their forecast models suggest a temperature above 2.5 degrees Celsius by autumn.

Any temperature rise above 2.5 degrees Celsius would be a "historically strong event," Johnson said.

The BoM forecasts also confidently point to the possibility of a very strong El Nino developing later this year.

Some forecast data even suggests that temperatures could exceed 3 degrees Celsius, surpassing the current known peak of 2.7 degrees Celsius recorded in 1877.

It should be noted that this was a very diverse era with limited observations and so much uncertainty remains in the reported temperature.

El Nino lasted about 18 months, which triggered a catastrophic global climate event, causing extreme drought and widespread famine across Asia, Brazil and Africa, which killed millions of people, while causing major flooding in other regions such as Peru.

The last "very strong" El Nino occurred in 2015-2016 when the average quarterly temperature (November, December, January) Nino3.4 reached 2.4°C. /CNA, translated by BBC