In what direction will Serbia-Russia relations go after EU criticism?

2025-10-18 19:17:11, Kosova & Bota CNA

"Lack of patience from Brussels and demand for sanctions against Russia within a short period."

This is how security and foreign policy expert Igor Bandovi? interprets the messages of the European Commission president to the authorities in Belgrade.

Ursula von der Leyen stated after meeting with Serbian President Aleksandar Vu?i? on October 15 that "now is the right time to take concrete steps towards membership" in the EU.

She called for progress in the rule of law, media freedom and electoral reforms, as well as for imposing sanctions against Russia.

"We have now seen in practice what it looks like when the balancing policy has an expiration date. I think a final decision will now have to be made," Bojana Selakovic, coordinator of the National Convention for the EU, which brings together experts and non-governmental organizations, tells Radio Free Europe.

Even after the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the sanctions imposed by the West on Moscow, Belgrade remained one of the Kremlin's few European partners, even though it is a candidate country for EU membership.

The new call from Brussels comes at a time when Serbia is facing the most concrete consequences of its balanced foreign policy.

The Oil Industry of Serbia (NIS), due to its predominantly Russian ownership, was placed under sanctions by the United States, while the new gas agreement with Moscow, on which Belgrade had hopes, was not signed.

Serbia justified its refusal to join the sanctions against Russia by invoking the "protection of national interests" - mainly due to its heavy dependence on Russian energy and Moscow's support for its non-recognition of Kosovo's independence.

"If Serbia is truly committed to EU membership, it cannot continue to have such relations with Russia, especially after the start of the war in Ukraine," says Selakovic.

Serbia has not opened any new chapters in EU accession negotiations since 2021.

Speaking about foreign policy, von der Leyen stressed that Brussels expects a higher level of approximation from Serbia, including the imposition of sanctions against Russia.

She congratulated Belgrade for reaching the 61% alignment rate, but added that "more is needed" and that the EU wants to have Serbia as a "reliable partner."

"A period is no longer given to approximate this policy, as happened before, when it was always postponed. Now it is clearly required and I would say within a short period of time," Bandovi? tells Radio Free Europe.

Focusing on the energy crisis, caused by Russian aggression in Ukraine in 2022, von der Leyen said that the offer of EU membership is a "promise of solidarity."

"You can continue to count on us. We connect Serbia to the EU energy market. This is the real guarantee that Serbian families will be safe and warm during the winter," she added.

She also mentioned concrete EU projects, taking as examples the Trans-Balkan Electricity Corridor, which connects Serbia's energy system with its neighbors and the EU, as well as the Serbia-Bulgaria gas interconnector.

Before the construction of this interconnector with Bulgaria in 2023, which is supplied with gas from Azerbaijan via Greece, Serbia relied mainly on Russian gas and the pipeline owned mainly by Russia's Gazprom, which is under US sanctions.

"The European Union is ready to help, but I have the impression that the problem lies with us," says Bandovi?.

Despite efforts to diversify sources, Serbia remains largely dependent on Russian gas, which meets about 80% of the needs of households and the economy.

Annually, Serbia consumes about three billion cubic meters of gas.

Although Belgrade had hoped for a three-year gas deal with Russia, in mid-October, “very disappointing news” came from Moscow, as Serbian President Aleksandar Vu?i? described it.

The Kremlin offered to extend the existing agreement only until the end of the year.

"They want to tell us: 'if you start nationalizing NIS or anything else, we can cut off the gas on December 31st.' And that's a very, very bad message for me, not because we planned to nationalize it... because, if we had, we wouldn't have sanctions," Vu?i? said on October 11.

The Russian ambassador to Belgrade, Aleksandr Botsan-Kharchenko, stated on October 16 that the decision on the gas deal is "based on commercial and technical reasons" and that it "has nothing to do with politics."

Speaking to the Serbian newspaper "Ve?erenje Novosti", he added that Russia wants Serbia to have "stable gas supplies, at the best possible price."

"When it comes to US sanctions against NIS, things should be called by their right name. They are also a blow against Serbia, perhaps due to the fact that you have not imposed sanctions on Russia and our countries continue to cooperate," the Russian ambassador said.

The US sanctions against NIS, which came into effect on October 9, aim, among other things, to prevent the financing of the war in Ukraine through money generated by Russian energy companies.

Russian influence in Serbia was also a topic at the meeting of the European Commission President with representatives of civil society in Serbia.

“It sees Russia as a major threat to the Western Balkans and as a major obstacle to the expansion of the European Union,” says Bandovi?.

The discussions also included the discovery of a paramilitary camp in western Serbia, where foreign nationals were trained to cause unrest in Moldova.

Police arrested two people, while authorities did not identify Russia as the organizer, despite Moldova's claims.

"Also discussed was Serbia's continued dependence on the security and intelligence institutions of the Russian Federation, which are often mentioned by our officials. This is something that raises great concern for the European Commission," adds Bandovi?.

The Serbian government invited Russia's Federal Security Service to Belgrade to investigate allegations that police used a sound cannon during a large anti-government protest in Belgrade on March 15.

Without providing evidence, Moscow and Belgrade accuse Western services of organizing mass protests in Serbia, in which demonstrators - led by students - demand responsibility for the deaths of 16 people in an accident in Novi Sad.

European Commission President von der Leyen said that "it is time for the entire population to come together and strengthen the foundations of an effective democracy."

She stressed that the EU supports freedom, not repression, including the right to peaceful assembly.

"We support partnership, not subjugation, and diplomacy instead of aggression," she added.

Bandovi? says that Serbia now has the opportunity to make a clear decision towards Brussels, but he does not believe that the current government will do so.

"... because the orientation towards the European Union has certain costs that this government is not willing to pay. I think mainly in the cost of democratization, rule of law and foreign policy harmonization. If it were ready, it would have done it much earlier," says Bandovi?.

Serbia has been a candidate for EU membership since 2012.

Of the 35 negotiating chapters, it has opened 22 and provisionally closed two.

The last chapter opened in December 2021.

According to progress reports from Brussels, the main conditions on the path to membership are: rule of law, normalization of relations with Kosovo, and alignment with EU foreign policy.

In its 2023 report, the European Parliament noted Russian influence in Serbia, which the country uses in an attempt to destabilize and interfere in the affairs of neighboring sovereign states.

Before that, in 2019, the US State Department characterized Serbia as the country with the "most permeable environment" for Russian influence in the Western Balkans./REL