Japanese Prime Minister Faces Challenge of Maintaining Balance in First Meeting with President Trump

2025-02-06 20:18:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Japanese Prime Minister Faces Challenge of Maintaining Balance in First Meeting

When Japanese Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba meets with United States President Donald Trump at the White House on Friday, his objective, according to Japanese officials, will be very clear: to reaffirm the US-Japan alliance and build a strong relationship with Mr. Trump.

But many in Tokyo say Mr. Ishiba's objective is even simpler - to avoid a diplomatic disaster with newly re-elected President Donald Trump, who has turned his "America First" foreign policy even more intensely than during his first term.

In less than three weeks since taking office, Mr. Trump has escalated pressure on the United States' allies and partners, often in unexpected and unpredictable ways.

He has threatened to impose tariffs on Mexico and Canada, raised the possibility of military action against cartels and suggested that Canada become the 51st state. He has called for the acquisition of Greenland by Denmark, a NATO member, and warned Panama that if it does not curb Chinese influence, the United States could take control of the Panama Canal by force.

These developments have worried many in Tokyo, which relies on the United States' "nuclear umbrella" and has long aligned itself with the idea of ??a rules-based international order under US leadership.

"If you follow the Japanese media or listen to what the Japanese say, in fact, they are just hoping that (Prime Minister) Ishiba can come out of this meeting without falling victim to some kind of new attack from America," says Jeffrey J. Hall, a political scientist at the University of International Studies in Kanda.

Can Prime Minister Abe's approach be repeated?

So far, Mr. Trump has been sparing in his criticism of Japan. Last week, while announcing his meeting with Mr. Ishiba, President Trump declared that “I like Japan,” citing his friendship with Shinzo Abe, the country’s late former prime minister.

Shinzo Abe, who led Japan for almost all of President Trump's first term, carefully cultivated his relationship with him - through personal diplomacy and flattery - often playing golf with Mr. Trump and even gifting him a gold-plated golf club.

Many Japanese analysts hope that Prime Minister Ishiba will follow a similar approach to maintain calm relations with President Trump.

But that could be difficult. Unlike Shinzo Abe, Shigeru Ishiba leads an unstable government and faces the possibility that his party could lose its majority in the upper house in crucial elections due later this year. Analysts also say that Mr. Ishiba's less forceful personality could make it harder for him to forge a closer bond with Mr. Trump.

"He doesn't have the elements and the confident communication style that President Trump seems to value," says Philip Turner, a former senior New Zealand diplomat now based in Tokyo. "If flattery is the answer, then I don't think he's very good at it," he added.

Better away from the spotlight?

The situation is so unpredictable that some in Japan are questioning whether or not Mr. Ishiba should meet with President Trump right now. Rather than risk it, they ask, why not try to stay out of President Trump's spotlight for as long as possible?

But even a calm approach may not work, says Mieko Nakabayashi, a former Japanese lawmaker. "Some people say, 'Don't wake a sleeping baby,' but this time Mr. Ishiba may do just that," says Ms. Nakabayashi, a professor at Waseda University in Tokyo.

According to Ms. Nakabayashi, in the event that President Trump threatens Japan with tariffs, it would be better for Mr. Ishiba to have established a personal relationship with Mr. Trump in advance so that he could manage the crisis.

"You have to take risks if you want to have a better relationship with Mr. Trump," she added.

To deflect potential pressure, analysts say, Prime Minister Ishiba could highlight Japan's role as the largest foreign investor in the United States. He could also raise economic issues such as the attempted acquisition of US Steel by Japan's Nippon Steel, a deal that was blocked by the administration of former President Joe Biden.

But some analysts predict that Prime Minister Ishiba may limit his ambitions, aiming to simply pave the way for a visit to Japan by President Trump, so that officials can demonstrate there how important the alliance with the US is.

Scholar Jeffrey J. Hall says this approach can only be successful because “Mr. Trump now seems to be busy dealing with many other issues and Japan is the kind of reliable partner who doesn’t stir things up.”

"But we have to wait and see. Right now, we really can't predict the United States and how they will act," he added. "It's a level of uncertainty that Japan has never experienced before." /CNA