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Iran braces for tough response from Israel after biggest-ever attack on it

2024-10-03 07:45:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Iran launched nearly 200 ballistic missiles at Israel, carrying out its biggest ever attack on its sworn enemy.

The October 1 attack was bigger and bolder than Iran's surprise attacks against Israel in April. This time, Tehran also used more advanced missiles and gave no apparent warning before carrying out the attack.

The overall damage and casualties that Iran's missile attack has caused are still unclear. But Israel has vowed to respond very harshly.

Experts have said Israel's retaliation is likely to be more forceful than it was in April - when it responded mostly mildly - given the scale of Iran's latest attack.

"Israel is obviously going to deal a much harder blow to Iran," said Ali Vaez, director of the Iran Project at the International Crisis Group.

The risk of inciting retaliation from Israel

Iran described its October 1 attack as revenge against Israel for its offensive in Lebanon and the devastating year-long war in the Gaza Strip, as well as the recent assassination of Tehran's key allies in the region.

Israeli forces launched a ground offensive in southern Lebanon on October 1, after a week of relentless and devastating bombing.

Israeli airstrikes in Beirut on September 27 killed Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of Hezbollah, the armed group and political party that controls much of southern Lebanon and is backed by Iran.

Israel has annihilated the leadership and destroyed the fighting capabilities of Hezbollah, Iran's closest and key ally in Tehran's strategy to fight Israel.

Hezbollah has been declared a terrorist organization by the United States, while the European Union has blacklisted its armed wing, but not its political party.

Meanwhile, Ismail Haniyeh, the political leader of Hamas – the Palestinian group designated a terrorist organization by the US and the EU – was killed in a suspected Israeli strike in Tehran in July.

Experts have said that domestic pressure to respond to Israel and Iran's weakened position in the region forced Tehran to act.

"Iran appears to have concluded that the cost of inaction was greater than the risks of taking action," Vaez said.

"There is no doubt that Tehran is aware of the dangers of not only repeating but expanding the missile attack against Israel, thus provoking an Israeli retaliation that seems certain to happen," he added.

Big attack, fierce response

Iran's missile and drone attack on Israel in April, its first ever direct attack on its enemy, was widely anticipated. Iran also used long-range drones and older missiles in that attack.

Compared to the attack at the time, Iran's Oct. 1 attack was "very substantial," said Fabian Hinz, a researcher at the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London.

Initial evidence suggests Iran used the ballistic missiles, which reached Israel within minutes, he told Radio Free Europe's Radio Farda.

The likely purpose, Hinz said, was to give Israel limited time to prepare.

In April, Israel responded to Iran's attack by striking an air defense radar system in the central Iranian city of Isfahan.

But experts warn that the Israeli revenge this time is expected to be much tougher.

Israeli officials have been quoted by the media as saying that Israel could strike strategic areas inside Iran, including energy facilities.

A possible Israeli attack on any oil or gas facilities in energy-rich Iran would be spectacular to watch but strategically harmless, said Farzin Nadimi, a research fellow at the Washington Institute for Middle East Studies. .

Attacking any nuclear facility would carry more risks and would have to be very large, considering that Iran's main nuclear infrastructure is located deep underground, he said.

Attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities, which Israel and the United States are said to have carried out, could force Tehran to weaponize its nuclear program, experts have warned.

"Regardless of what [Israel's] intention is, such a strike is destined to force Tehran to retaliate, prompting ballistic missile attacks that could push the entire region into the abyss," Vaez said./ Rel