Serious blow?/ Ukraine's penetration into Russian territory

2024-08-09 11:14:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Fierce fighting has been taking place since Tuesday morning in the Kursk region of Russia, which borders northeastern Ukraine. Regional government bodies have declared a state of emergency and air raid sirens sound regularly.

According to the Russian Ministry of Defense and military experts, Ukrainian troops have penetrated into Russian territory. They are said to have captured Russian soldiers and the Russian military has lost at least one Ka-52 helicopter that was shot down by a drone.

The Russian authorities claim that they have "stopped the advance of the enemy's troops" and that they have "the situation under control", but new fighting is being reported from the small town of Sudja.

Serious blow?/ Ukraine's penetration into Russian territory

Ukraine has not made any official statement about the situation in the Kursk region. Most military experts interviewed by DW think that this attack on Russian territory will weaken the Russian army on the main front in Ukraine, because Russia will have to move some of its troops.

The success of Ukraine, the failure of the Russian secret services

A closed-door meeting of the Russian Security Council called by President Vladimir Putin may have discussed a failure of the Russian secret service to track the movements of Ukrainian troops near the border. According to independent Russian military expert Yuri Fyodorov: "We are talking about two brigades with about 4,000 soldiers each, which is definitely a success for the Ukrainian side."

According to him, these troops may be sufficient to create a basis for further actions on Russian territory, because there are neither defense systems nor sufficient Russian troops in that area. "There are 10,000 to 12,000 soldiers in Kursk. They are scattered and less prepared to fight than the troops directly involved in the war," he says. The expert thinks that the main goal of Ukraine is to distract the Russian army from the main front of the fighting.

Serious blow?/ Ukraine's penetration into Russian territory

But at the same time, Fyodorov said that the Ukrainian armed forces also have big problems: "Zelensky said that the Ukrainian armed forces have almost 14 brigades without personnel and that there are not enough weapons to send them into battle."

Ten Russian villages and 15 kilometers of territory

Russian military analyst Jan Matveyev agrees with this assessment, adding that there may be several hundred Ukrainian soldiers on Russian territory, while the rest are waiting as a reserve on Ukrainian territory. These reserve troops can be called into action if the Ukrainian offensive is successful.

According to Matveyev, the Ukrainian army had managed to capture ten villages by August 7 and had penetrated about 15 kilometers into Russian territory. Even the experts of the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) based in the USA talk about a penetration of up to ten kilometers.

Pressure tool for ceasefire talks

From a psychological point of view, the occupied Russian territory is for Ukraine an important argument in the talks for a possible ceasefire, says Matveyev. But from a military perspective, it is unclear whether in the end Ukraine will lose more military units as a result of the offensive than the Russian army. "On the Donetsk front, for example, the Ukrainian army has serious problems".

Losing control over a part of Russian territory is a disaster for the Russian authorities, says Ukrainian military expert Oleh Zhdanov. At the same time, the Russian army simply lacks the personnel it can send to the new combat zone: "Every month in Russia 25,000 to 30,000 people are mobilized to sign contracts with the army. But they are needed to compensate for losses on the front line of the front".

Zhdanov believes that the Ukrainian leadership can use the situation to take a stronger position if negotiations begin to resolve the military conflict. "Political importance exceeds military success," he says./ VOA