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BBC Analysis/ Are the US and Iran close to peace or are they heading back to war?

2026-05-28 18:32:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

BBC Analysis/ Are the US and Iran close to peace or are they heading back to

A ceasefire "hanging by a thread." A diplomatic process "making progress." A "disgruntled" president. And explosions echoing across the Gulf.

What should we say about the current and confusing state of relations between the US and Iran - are we close to peace or are we sliding back into war?

This week has certainly put the ceasefire, which came into effect on April 8, to the test and has now lasted significantly longer than the active phase of fighting that preceded it, to the test.

Iran responded to the latest US strikes - which included what US Central Command (Centcom) described as a "ground control site" in the southern Iranian port city of Bandar Abbas - with a warning that "aggression will not go unanswered".

The Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) later said it had attacked a US air base. It did not say which one, but Centcom later said a ballistic missile had been intercepted over Kuwait, where the US has several bases.

Echoing Tehran's language, Centcom called the attack "a serious violation of the ceasefire."

It all sounds ominous, but it’s still a far cry from the furious exchanges that characterized the first five and a half weeks of this conflict. During that time, the US and Israel launched thousands of airstrikes against targets across Iran, and Tehran responded with barrages of drones and ballistic missiles against US bases, Gulf states and Israel.

The US said on Thursday it had shot down five Iranian drones that "posed a threat around the Strait of Hormuz", suggesting that maritime transport - commercial or military - was again at the centre of concern.

But neither side seems to consider the kind of “tooth for tooth” exchanges we’ve seen this week as a return to all-out war.

Trump said Iran was "starting to give us the things they need to give us." He did not elaborate and repeated his warning that Tehran's failure to comply would trigger a return to war.

"If they don't do this, then the man to my left will finish them off," he said, addressing US Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth.

There were also characteristic signs of impatience. Asked about reports that Iran and Oman might try to control shipping through the strait, Trump issued a stark warning to a traditional US ally.

"Oman will behave like everyone else, or we will have to blow them up," he said.

Meanwhile, the US Treasury on Wednesday sanctioned Iran's newly formed "Persian Gulf Strait Authority," created by Tehran to oversee traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.

The Treasury's Office of Foreign Assets Control (OFAC) called the scheme "a new effort by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps to monetize its state-sponsored terror campaign."

As always, Trump was doing his best to make it seem like the war was going according to plan, dismissing any suggestion that he needed to reach a deal quickly to avoid further price increases in the oil market - or a political blow in the November midterm elections.

But there is no doubt that he is in a difficult situation.

A satisfactory deal remains tantalizingly unlikely, and there are some in his party - not to mention Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu - who would like him to return to the war to finish the job.

Similar pressures are at play in Tehran, where some of the country's most hardline voices are insisting on maximalist goals, arguing that Iran has shown it cannot be subdued.

The diplomatic effort, led by Pakistan, is extremely complex.

The issues that divide both sides are profound: Iran's nuclear program, the future management of the Strait of Hormuz, the lifting of sanctions, and the unblocking of assets.

The immediate objective - a memorandum that would end the war and set out a plan of action for the complex diplomatic negotiations that would follow - is proving elusive.

On Wednesday, US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said the coming hours or days would tell whether progress was possible.

Despite all the internal pressures that exist on both sides and the tense atmosphere in and around the Gulf, neither Iran nor the US seem interested in a return to war.

Despite appearances, the ceasefire - now more than seven weeks old - is still in effect.