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Around 500,000 Russian soldiers are believed to have been killed during Moscow's full-scale invasion of Ukraine, which began in 2022, a senior British intelligence official said, as fighting neared a stalemate.
The figure was made public on May 27 during a speech by Anne Keast-Butler, director of GCHQ, Britain's main intelligence and cyber security agency. It is consistent with other estimates made in recent months by Western governments and independent media organizations.
Keast-Butler reiterated other British Government warnings that Russia is "relentlessly targeting critical infrastructure, democratic processes, supply chains and public trust" in Britain and across Europe.
GCHQ is the main British intelligence unit, similar to the National Security Agency in the United States.
Keast-Butler said GCHQ is focusing on protecting the undersea cables and pipelines that connect Britain to the rest of the world, as well as combating "sabotage and assassination attempts".
She added that authorities are trying to thwart Russian efforts to smuggle Western technology, bypassing sanctions imposed by the West in response to the invasion of Ukraine in February 2022.
"While we remain steadfast in our support for Ukraine, [Russian President Vladimir] Putin is retreating on the battlefield, with new intelligence indicating that almost half a million Russian soldiers have been killed since the start of the conflict," she said.
This figure is similar to other public estimates, which have highlighted the extent of the damage the Russian military has suffered in Ukraine since the start of the invasion.
In its annual report published last month, the Netherlands' main military intelligence agency estimated that Russia suffered 1.2 million losses, including more than 500,000 killed.
A joint assessment by Russian exile media outlets Mediazona and Meduza, based on legacy case documents, estimated that the number of Russian soldiers killed since 2022 is at least 352,000.
Until the end of last year, Russia was still advancing slowly, using small-scale infiltration tactics to break through Ukrainian defenses, but with extremely heavy losses.
Recently, however, Ukrainian forces, relying heavily on innovations with drones and new tactics for using them, have managed to almost halt the Russian advance.
In some areas, Ukraine has even managed to regain small pieces of territory.
Since September 2022, when President Vladimir Putin shocked Russian society by ordering the mobilization of 300,000 men, Moscow's war has relied on volunteer recruits , lured by extraordinary pay and benefits.
Experts have said that this supply chain of soldiers may have slowed in recent months, with signs that Russia is losing more men each month than it is recruiting.
“Since December, about 35,000 Russian soldiers have been killed per month,” Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in a speech last month. “Russia is unable to recruit enough soldiers to replace those 35,000. Ninety-five percent of them are killed by drones. The casualty ratio currently, and I apologize for the morbid wording, is one to five: one Ukrainian soldier for every five Russian soldiers.”
Although Ukraine has rushed to use new drone technologies, Kiev has faced difficulties in providing enough men for the front lines and replenishing exhausted and depleted units, many of which have been fighting for months without a break.
Like Russia, Ukraine does not publish detailed figures on human losses.
Western estimates, including those of the Dutch military agency, put the number of permanent Ukrainian casualties at around 500,000 in total. The Center for Strategic and International Studies puts the figure at 600,000.
The Washington-based institute has also predicted that, by this summer, the combined losses of both sides will exceed $2 million.
Some of the tactics and policies that Ukrainian authorities have used to mobilize men of military age for military service have sparked criticism within Ukrainian society, with complaints that the process is riddled with corruption.
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