Is China preparing to attack Taiwan?

2025-12-30 11:03:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

The Chinese military began its largest military drill around Taiwan on Monday. The live-fire drill will also simulate a blockade of Taiwan's main ports. Beijing claims Taiwan as Chinese territory and aims to "reunify" it with China, by force if necessary.

The drill, codenamed "Mission Justice 2025," serves as Beijing says as a stern warning against "separatist forces and external interference" in Taiwan, state news agency Xinhua reported. It is expected to last two days.

Taiwan, which rejects Beijing's territorial claims, urged China "not to misjudge the situation and become a cause of trouble in the region."

Taiwan's Defense Ministry condemned China's action as "irrational" and said it had set up an emergency response center and mobilized appropriate forces to respond.

'Mission Justice 2025' simulates blockade of Taiwan

In an official statement, the Chinese military said its multiple forces would conduct exercises around Taiwan "in close proximity and from different directions" to test their capabilities for joint operations.

Shi Yi, spokesman for the Chinese military's Eastern Wing Command, also said the exercise will focus on training naval and air patrols of combat readiness forces, closing off key ports and areas, and conducting multidimensional deterrence operations.

"This constitutes an attempt to gain air and naval superiority and cut off external military support," Su Tzu-yun, a researcher at the National Defense and Security Research Institute in Taipei, told DW.

This maneuver constitutes the seventh major round of China's military maneuvers around Taiwan since 2022, when then-Speaker of the United States House of Representatives, Nancy Pelosi, visited the island.

Beijing tests Washington's resolve

China's military operation comes days after the US announced an $11.1 billion arms sale package to Taiwan. If approved by Congress, it would be the largest US-Taiwanese arms deal ever.

"The Chinese military is testing how the US government will respond," says William Yang, Northeast Asia analyst at the International Crisis Group.

Last week, Beijing imposed sanctions on 20 US military companies and 10 of their executives to protest US arms sales to Taiwan. But Yang said those sanctions are largely "symbolic" and have little real impact.

In its new national security strategy released earlier this month, the Trump administration emphasized trade competition with China, while the Pentagon's latest report to Congress highlighted China's military buildup and modernization in the context of possible preparations for an invasion of Taiwan.

With the start of another round of military exercises, Beijing may also be testing whether the US will respond with strong action or follow a more measured approach to avoid damaging the circumstances for President Donald Trump's visit to China next year, Yang said.

In November, Trump said he had accepted an invitation to visit Beijing in April 2026 and invited Chinese President Xi Jinping for a state visit to the United States. /DW