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Do rising tensions between Israel and Iran pose a nuclear threat?

2024-10-17 16:45:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Israel's threat to retaliate against Iran's October 1 missile attack is raising fears of a nuclear confrontation in the region. As Voice of America correspondent Heather Murdock reports, analysts do not believe that Israel and Iran see any benefit in using nuclear weapons, considering the catastrophic consequences of such an attack. However, an Israeli attack on Iran's nuclear facilities would prompt the Islamic republic to develop its own nuclear weapons, according to experts.

Israel has never denied that it has nuclear weapons.

Analysts say Iran does not yet have them, but the Islamic republic has the expertise and resources to produce nuclear weapons.

Israel is not in direct conflict with Iran, but is at war with groups supported by Tehran. However, Israel has warned that it will respond to hundreds of missiles that Iran fired at the Jewish state on October 1, promising that the attack will be "lethal, precise and surprise".

Iran has vowed to respond to the attack warned by Israel.

"This conflict ultimately brings to the surface Israel's biggest security problem, the ongoing hostility with Iran and Tehran's support for the 'Axis of Resistance' groups, which are active on Israel's borders," says Sanam Vakil of the British institute. Chatham House'.

The term "Axis of Resistance" refers to Iranian-backed military groups that have called for the destruction of Israel. It includes the Hezbollah group in Lebanon, where more than 2,300 people have been killed and 1.2 million displaced by Israeli attacks in recent weeks. It also includes the Hamas group in Gaza.

The conflict began when Hamas killed 1,200 people and kidnapped hundreds more inside Israel in a surprise attack on October 7 last year.

Since then, Gaza's health ministry says more than 42,000 people have been killed and nearly all of Gaza's civilian population has been driven from their homes.

Experts, however, say this does not mean the conflict will lead to a nuclear war.

"I don't expect Israel or Iran to see any benefit in using nuclear weapons because of the catastrophic consequences that would follow. "Both countries understand that the use of nuclear weapons would provoke massive retaliation, potentially leading to their destruction," says Samuel M. Hickey of the Center for Arms Control in Washington.

Israel has said it has no intention of striking nuclear facilities, after much speculation by politicians and analysts about what Israeli forces would do after the Iranian attack.

Analyst Hickey says even if Iran's nuclear facilities are hit, it is not likely to prevent Iran from developing such a bomb.

"Iran's nuclear facilities may be bombed, but they will continue to operate elsewhere. Work can continue in facilities underground," says Mr. Hickey.

A video previously released by news agencies is believed to show one of Iran's nuclear facilities in Isfahan.

Attacks on or near areas like this could cause radioactivity to spread to civilian areas. Such an attack could also encourage Iran to build nuclear weapons, although Tehran has previously said it would not.

"Israel's actions and lack of diplomatic engagement to urge Iran to limit its nuclear program could, over time, lead to Iran's production of nuclear weapons. This, of course, would be disastrous for the region," says Sanam Vakil from the London-based organization Chatham House.

How long it would take Iran to build nuclear weapons has been the subject of much speculation.

Analyst Samuel Hickey says the time it would take Iran to produce the right nuclear material for the bomb is about a week.

After that, the production of the bomb, he says, would be done in secret and it would take at least a few months./ VOA