Euro hits new historical low below 96.5 lek

2025-12-16 20:27:00, Ekonomi CNA

The Euro-Lek exchange rate continues to show a downward trend. According to the official exchange rate of the Bank of Albania, the European currency has started this week with another slight decline and has touched a new historical minimum at the value of 96.49 lek.

Agents state that the foreign exchange market in this period is characterized by increased flows of European currency, reflecting, in general, a seasonal effect.

However, the annual decline in the exchange rate appears relatively small. Compared to a year ago, the Euro-Lek exchange rate is down 1.8%.

The relative stability of the exchange rate continues to rely on the continuous interventions of the Bank of Albania. The Central Bank is carrying out periodic foreign exchange purchase operations, in order to prevent further strengthening of the domestic currency. These interventions are justified by the legal inflation target.

The latest data showed that annual inflation in November fell to 2.1% and it is believed that its imported component is having the main effect. For this reason, the Bank of Albania is trying to curb a further appreciation of the Lek in the exchange rate.

According to Governor Sejko's statements, by the end of the first nine months of 2025, purchases had reached around 800 million euros. If purchases in the last quarter have continued at least at the average pace of the previous three quarters, it is likely that the currency withdrawn from the market this year by the Bank of Albania will exceed the 1 billion euro mark.

Based on official statistics from the Bank of Albania, for the third quarter of 2025 the current account balance was positive at the value of 658 million euros. The current account surplus marked a strong increase of 90% (about 312 million euros) compared to the same period last year. The third quarter surplus also brought the temporary exit of the Albanian economy from the negative external position.

For the entire first 9 months, the current account balance was positive at the value of 51 million euros, while a year earlier it had recorded a deficit of 233 million euros. Adding the flows of foreign direct investments (estimated at more than 1.2 billion euros), the balance of foreign exchange inflows and outflows in the economy seems to have been positive and would explain the further downward trends of the Euro-Lek exchange rate.

However, balance of payments statistics are not entirely based on direct measurements, but in some of the items there are also estimates made, based on indirect statistical methods.

For this reason, these statistics should be interpreted with some reservations.

In the perception of market agents, informal currency flows also remain a factor that constantly affects the exchange rate, but the extent of the impact of this factor is difficult to assess./ Monitor