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Where did the DP votes go?!

2025-05-22 15:24:00, Editorial Elvi FUNDO

Where did the DP votes go?!

The May 11 elections already have a certified result. The Socialists have declared victory, Berisha does not recognize the elections, he says electoral massacre, but the figures are what show us the truth of the results of the May 11 elections. Compared to the 2017 or 2021 elections.

ANALYSIS OF THE 2021-2025 ELECTIONS

Let's take the 2021 elections, the closest ones, but also the ones where there was a lot of hope for change after 8 years of Rama's government, let's look 4 years ago to find out where the opposition votes are, where the DP votes are.

According to the 2021 electoral table, the DP has around 620 thousand votes, the SP has 768 thousand votes.

Where did the DP votes go?!
Results of the 2021 elections for the DP and SP

We recall that in 2021, immigrants did not vote and the SMI was outside the DP coalition, competing alone.

Of the small parties in 2021, the Social Democrats have about 34 thousand votes and about 8 thousand votes have the Democratic Persuasion, Topalli's Movement for Change has 7 thousand votes, the National Front was on its own at the time, about 2 thousand votes, Myslim Murriz's Party about 5 thousand votes, Nisma Thurje 10 thousand votes, in total the small ones at that time had about 60 thousand votes all together, without the LSI.

Where did the DP votes go?!
2021 election results

A comparison of the 2021 elections with the 2025 elections shows us where the DP's votes have gone.

The DP has 530 thousand votes including the votes of immigrants in 2025, if we analyze the votes within the country, there are about 483 thousand votes.

Where did the DP votes go?!
2025 election results

WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?

"LSI" FACTOR

This means that the DP is missing approximately 140 thousand votes, but this should also include the approximately 100 thousand votes that the SMI received in 2021, when it ran independently in those elections. So, approximately 240 thousand votes in total, rounded up.

In 2021, the DP, together with the SMI, had about 720,000 votes, about 40,000 votes less than the SP.

Where did the DP votes go?!
SMI's result in the 2021 elections

First, in 2025, the Democratic Party lacks the votes of the SMI in the ballot box.

The SMI seems to only have about 10 thousand votes in all of Albania, where Ilir Meta has about 8 thousand votes in Tirana, nothing more than that.

So, LSI has dissolved, a factor of loss.

Where did the DP votes go?!
Ilir Metaj's results in 2025

"PDIU" FACTOR

Second, the Democratic Party lacked the votes of the PDIU, a party with 20-30 thousand votes that Shpëtim Idrizi defeated by 2 thousand votes.

The DP-ASHM coalition will lack, from 2021, not only the votes of its allies, which are not reflected in the coalition at all, but also of many other parties in the coalition.

Where did the DP votes go?!
PDIU results in the 2025 elections

LACK OF VOTES FROM NEW PARTIES

In 2021, we had new parties that emerged from the Democratic Party, they were Topalli, Patoz's Bindja and Murriz's party, together they received around 20 thousand votes. Now they were within the DP, except for Bindja which was merged. If we add these missing votes to the DP in 2025, the calculation goes over 260 thousand votes.

Where did the DP votes go?!

In 2025 we have another electoral phenomenon of the DP, which is Agron Shehaj's "Mundësia", which with a bus and young people in many districts has made a hole in the DP's mandates, but has also introduced two deputies. There are about 50 thousand votes that Agron Shehaj received, in 2021 these votes were in the DP's box, now they are outside this box, "Mundësia" has received them. These are the votes that the DP lacks.

Where did the DP votes go?!
Results of Agron Shehaj's Mandeasia party

Let's go to another party.

The Right Coalition for Development has about 5,500 votes, which were in the DP's box in 2021, but are no longer there.

Where did the DP votes go?!
Results of the Right Coalition for Development 2025

Lulzim Basha's Euro-Atlantic Coalition has received around 20,000 votes , which are votes that should have been in the DP's box, but are not in that box.

Where did the DP votes go?!
Euro-Atlantic Coalition Results for 2025

Here alone, we are dealing with about 75,000 missing votes, meaning that they came out of the 2021 ballot box and were listed in 3 other ballot boxes.

We also add about 50 thousand votes within the country for the "Albania Becomes" coalition, which is an opposition position. It has received votes to the right, gray votes, that should have been in the Democratic Party's bag.

Where did the DP votes go?!
Results of the Albania Initiative for 2025

THE DP BALLOT BOX DID NOT 140 THOUSAND VOTES

So, with a simple calculation, about 140 thousand missing votes of the DP from 2021 are scattered, if we add the LSI of 2021 and other opposition actors, not a few are missing, but about 260 thousand votes. Where did the votes of the DP go, there are about 50 thousand votes of Agron Shehaj, about 50 thousand in the coalition "Nisma Shqipëria Bëhet", about 20 thousand for Lulzim Basha and other parties. The votes of the electoral opposition factors scattered in 2025, if you add them up, make up the total of the votes that the DP is missing in the box from 2021. But the 100 thousand votes of the LSI, which is already a crumbling party, are always missing.

If we add here the votes of the SMI, which have almost disappeared, Sali Berisha's Democratic Party and the ASHM coalition have almost the same result in 2025 as in 2021.

There is no increase, but the votes of small parties have flowed to new electoral factors. The SP within the country in 2025 has 34 thousand fewer votes than in 2021. So, there is no increase to say that the votes of the LSI or the small ones of 2021 went to the SP.  The flight of Albanians abroad has also influenced the result.

Leaving aside the diaspora vote, since this is what the Democrats themselves requested, for the diaspora to vote, it's not like there's a big difference, but it gave a much worse result, with a difference of 10% less.

So, in Albania, about 35% voted for the DP and if you add the other allies, the result is almost the same as in 2021 with a percentage of about 40%. Meanwhile, only 24% of immigrants voted for the DP and the ASHM coalition.

The votes are in the box, but they are not for the same party, they are not for the Alliance for Greater Albania coalition, but they are distributed among the allies and if you look at them in the districts, in Fier, Elbasan, Tirana, Durrës, Vlora and everywhere, the ASHM Coalition has lost and has fearlessly left 7, 8 or 10 mandates simply to small parties that emerged independently, such as the Albania Becomes Initiative Coalition or the Opportunity Party, PSD and other parties, such as the Together Movement, which have received tens and thousands of votes in the districts, simply by hitting and damaging the Democratic Party and its allies.

In Vlora, the SP received 8 thousand votes less than in 2021, but it retained its 8th mandate, and received its 9th from the diaspora. But the DP was defeated, Mundësia received over 5 thousand votes in Vlora and Lapaj around 6300, that's the 11 thousand votes that overthrew the 9th mandate of the SP.

In Fier, the SP received 12 mandates, a result that seems historic, but where did the DP's votes go?

In 2021, the DP has about 65 thousand votes in Fier and 12 thousand for the SMI, in 2025 the DP coalition has only 40 thousand votes from within the country. With a simple calculation, it lacks 35 thousand votes, almost 45% of the 2021 total. The SMI seems to have crumbled in Fier without any votes, it did not exist as an electoral party. The PDIU had fled from the position of the chairman Idrizi or Mesila Doda who were on the closed lists of the DP, the Cham party had joined the SP at the base. From here, the DP and its coalition have gained over 15 thousand votes.

New parties like Mundësia, Lapaj, etc., have received a large number of votes in Fier. Mundësia without the diaspora has about 4 thousand votes, and Lapaj has received 7 thousand votes, there are 11 thousand votes which is a mandate left by the DP. The PS has 97 thousand votes in 2025 and about 92 thousand in 2021 with an increase of 5 thousand votes in total, but it has 3 more mandates in 2025.

The same phenomenon as in Vlora and Fier is also in Elbasan. These are the 3 regions that gave the largest number of mandates to the SP. Fier 12 out of 16, Vlora 9 out of 12 and Elbasan 10 out of 14. The Socialists do not have more votes than in 2021, but they have more mandates after the new parties have crushed the DP and its coalition.

SMALL PARTIES BURN THE DP-ASHM MANDATES

So, beyond what is claimed to be theft, the votes are scattered in the boxes and the mandates have been burned by small parties. This is a fact when you look at the votes of the Socialists, which do not have any surprising increase, despite having fewer votes and the same mandates (always without the diaspora).

Where did the DP votes go?!

The reason why it was not won and should there have been more votes? Why did the opposition not take revenge on the socialist government in 12 years? What were the prime minister's electoral strategies? There are many answers.

But we are faced with the DP campaign, with a contested closed list, an even more contested open list, an internal war, an opposition that does not inspire hope. There was no competition, where there was a result, it was more dignified.

The votes are there in the box. The DP has not received fewer votes than in 2021, they are simply scattered and the small parties, due to the system, have damaged the ASHM coalition by perhaps 8 or 10 mandates, which would make the opposition even stronger to face the majority in Parliament.

DP WINS WITH 50 MANDATES

The DP has now been reduced to about 50 mandates and the small parties that have emerged on their own have received 7 mandates in total, but together with the PSD there are about 200 thousand votes, which the opposition lacks, the DP lacks and these 200 thousand votes have only translated into 7 mandates, while if they were within the ASHM coalition box they could produce many times more mandates than that.

Where did the DP votes go?!
DP, 50 mandates from the 2025 elections

The numbers now speak for themselves, the results tables show the fact that the Democratic Party, beyond a loss for many reasons, one is simple, has the majority of votes there, but they have been taken away by the new parties that competed in these elections, doing a truly magnificent service to Prime Minister Rama during his mandates. / CNA

 





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