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"Negotiations, impossible"/ Antonio Guterres: Both Russia and Ukraine believe they can win

2023-05-13 18:58:00, Blog CNA

"Negotiations, impossible"/ Antonio Guterres: Both Russia and Ukraine

United Nations Secretary-General Antonio Guterres received the Charles V European Award on Tuesday at the Juste Monastery in Caseres, Spain. After the award was presented by the King of Spain, Felipe VI, Guterres said that this country has "a special meaning" for him.

"When I won the elections for the first time in Portugal in 1995, I came with my wife to Juste, and it struck me that someone who had been emperor of the world spent the last years of his life, after he abdicated, in a monastery of simple, which is a lesson for many politicians today," said Guterres.

The head of the UN himself seems to want a retirement like that of the Holy Roman Emperor, Charles V, away from today's troubled world, where he has to deal with the war in Ukraine, global warming and the refugee crisis. He spoke about these problems in an interview for the newspaper.

You have received an award that recognizes the European spirit, at a time when the continent is once again experiencing a war on its territory. What can Europe and the UN do to end the war in Ukraine?

Unfortunately, I believe that peace negotiations are not possible at this time. Because both sides are convinced they can win. The Russian occupation is against international law, against the Charter of the United Nations. But I don't think that at the moment Moscow is ready to withdraw from the territories that it occupies, and I think that Ukraine hopes to liberate them.

What we are doing as much as we can is to dialogue with both parties to solve specific problems. The most important initiative has been the export of grain from Ukraine and food products and fertilizers from Russia through the Black Sea. This deal expires on May 18th. Do you have faith that it will be renewed?
The last thing I did last night and this morning was to contact my colleagues who are dealing with this issue. We are fully committed to trying to save this deal. Rebecca Grinspan, Secretary General of the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development was in Moscow a few days ago.

Meanwhile, Martin Griffiths, the Under-Secretary-General for Humanitarian Affairs is in Istanbul on Tuesday. We are preparing a meeting of 4 parties, Russia, Ukraine, the United Nations and Turkey in Istanbul, and we are doing everything possible to better respond to the problems that the Russians are facing. It is true that the export of food and fertilizers is not under sanctions, but some indirect obstacles remain, which we are trying to eliminate; in addition to resolving issues on inspections.

Will peace have to wait until both sides are convinced that neither side can
win?

At this moment I see no possibility of immediately reaching a cease-fire or starting
peace negotiations.

Meanwhile, there is a risk of the situation escalating. For example, the use of tactical atomic weapons by Russia or a nuclear accident in Zaporizhzhia...

Zaporizhzhia is a big concern for us. I hope there is enough caution on both sides to prevent a tragedy. On the other hand, I think that the possibility of a nuclear escalation is very small. The Chinese initiative was very important, as it openly stated that the nuclear escalation of the conflict is unacceptable.

Are mediation offers from China or Brazilian President Lula da Silva doomed to fail ?

I already stated that negotiations will not happen at this time. I hope they will be developed in the future. There was talk of a Russian offensive in the winter and a Ukrainian counteroffensive in the spring. It is clear that both sides are fully engaged in the war.

Does the sending of weapons from the West to Ukraine comply with the right of self-defense?

I have not and will never comment on the support that exists or does not exist. It is clear that both sides have tried to supply weapons from abroad, and that is what happens in wars. The objective is to achieve a just peace, in accordance with international law and the Charter of the United Nations. But we are still far from that.

You have warned that we could have a 2.8º Celsius rise in global temperatures by the end of the century. Does this mean abandoning the Paris Agreement - which pledged to keep this rise below 1.5ºC?

The latest report from the IPCC, the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, the highest scientific authority on the matter, says it is possible that temperatures will not rise above 1.5ºC by the end of the century. But for that to happen, we need to dramatically change what we're doing, because emissions are continuing to rise.

I have proposed a solidarity pact between major developed and major developing economies, which account for 80 percent of emissions. My proposal is that the former achieve zero atmospheric carbon emissions near 2040 and the latter near 2050. But we are not currently moving in that direction. We have not yet found the political will from governments, and the contributions of the private sector are not enough to avoid a catastrophe with unpredictable consequences.

Do we still have time to prevent it?

I am very close to the moment of truth. If the necessary measures are not taken, the 1.5ºC target will be missed, and that would be terrible for humanity. Should the oil companies be held responsible?
Oil companies must be at the forefront of the decarbonisation process. Today we are witnessing something that is morally intolerable. We see that these companies are collecting windfall profits, which they are using to buy back their own shares instead of investing in green energy, which has forced us to ask states to impose windfall taxes.

Since you were the UN High Commissioner for Refugees between 2005-2015, the situation and the number of displaced persons has only worsened. At that time, international refugee law was respected practically everywhere in the world. Today we see that in the Southern Hemisphere there is a readiness to receive hundreds of thousands of refugees, as in Sudan, but in the developed world many doors have been closed. There is no policy to
ensure that immigration is regulated.

Therefore it is controlled by traffickers, committing terrible violations of human rights. I think Europe has a problem to solve: its demography is unstable and immigration is a component to guarantee its survival. But there is no European immigration policy. There are national policies - which are sometimes contradictory - and this means that Europe does not have a positive role in the global regulation of population movements. It's embarrassing./ Adapted from CNA.al