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What does the killing of Sinwar mean for Hamas and Lebanon?

2024-10-20 20:00:00, Blog CNA

What does the killing of Sinwar mean for Hamas and Lebanon?

Protests in Tel Aviv for the end of the war

According to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu, Wednesday's killing of Hamas political chief Yahya Sinwar will mean that "Hamas will no longer rule Gaza." According to Netanyahu, Sinwari's death, which was confirmed on Thursday, marks the beginning of the "day after Hamas". Observers, however, think differently about the Iran-backed Hamas militia, which has been categorized as a terrorist organization by the US, the EU and many other countries.

"Sinwar's killing is clearly a blow to Hamas given the important role he played within the organization," Neil Quilliam, a fellow in the Middle East and North Africa Program at the Chatham House-based institute, told DW. London. However, Quilliam points out that in the past the policy of beheading has done little to undermine Hamas's will and ability to fight Israel. The 62-year-old Sinwar took power after the assassination of Hamas's previous political leader, Ismail Haniyeh, in Tehran this July.

What does the killing of Sinwar mean for Hamas and Lebanon?

Quilliam thinks that "Hamas will raise a new generation of leaders, redeveloping its military and technological capacity and appealing to young Palestinians in Gaza and the West Bank, affected by the conflict with Israel". This view is shared by Peter Lintl, a researcher at the German Foundation for Science and Politics (SWP) "Hamas is certainly weakened, but Sinwar's death is not a death blow to the militia," he told DW.

"Cease fire possibility?"

Meanwhile, German, French and American political circles have heard the hope that Sinwar's death could present an opportunity to reach a cease-fire agreement in Gaza. Sinwar's departure from the battlefield "presents an opportunity to find a way forward that brings the hostages home, brings the war to an end, and gets us to the day after," the National Security Adviser of USA, Jake Sullivan.

But on Friday, just a day after confirming Sinwar's death, Hamas vowed to hold the hostages until the end of the war in Gaza. In the last 13 months of the Gaza war, which was sparked by a deadly Hamas attack on Israel on October 7, 2023, some 42,000 people have been killed, according to Hamas-run health authorities. And of the approximately 250 hostages taken in Gaza by Hamas on October 7, approximately 100 are still believed to be in Hamas's hands.

What does the killing of Sinwar mean for Hamas and Lebanon?

However, Mohammed al-Qawas of the Emirati think tank Emirates Policy Center (EPC) sees Sinwar's death as the possible start of "a new chapter" of the war in Gaza. "Once the responsibility for the ceasefire negotiations is transferred to the Hamas leaders abroad, these negotiations will also be subject to external calculations, because all these leaders abroad are influenced by the capitals, in which they are located, and perhaps the influence of these capitals that Hamas can make concessions and initiate a new policy," al-Qawas told DW. Hamas's political leadership is based in Qatar, however, the Gaza-based Sinwari has been their go-to person for ceasefire negotiations led by the US, Qatar and Egypt with Israel since Haniyeh's murder.

Lintl of the German Foundation told DW that despite Sinwar's death, he sees little reason to hope that Israel might now be willing to end the war. Despite hailing Sinwar's death as the end of Hamas on Thursday, Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu also made it clear that the war would not end until the remaining leaders of Hamas — such as Mohammed Sinwar, brother of Yahya Sinwar and his successor as military chief of Hamas – be eliminated and all hostages held by Hamas returned.

What does the killing of Sinwar mean for Hamas and Lebanon?

Beyond Gaza - Hezbollah's revenge

After Gaza, Israel has also taken on Hezbollah in Lebanon after a year of limited fighting. The Iranian-backed militant group Hezbollah - which the US and Germany have fully designated as a terrorist organization and whose armed wing is also considered such by the European Union - claims to be acting in support of Hamas. In September, Israel assassinated its leader, Hassan Nasrallah. Observers point out that such killings have not helped to end hostilities. When Sinwar's death became public on Thursday, Hezbollah announced a "new and escalating phase" in its war with Israel, claiming it had for the first time used precision-guided missiles against Israel in an attempt to "escalating day by day."/ DW