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Pas ndeshjes, protestuesit zhvendosen te selia e PD-së: Opozitë e shitur

Pas ndeshjes, protestuesit janë zhvendosur para selisë së ...

The mandates’analysis/ Basha’s list-SMI, a loss for the Democratic Party

6 Janar 2021, 20:57, English CNA

There are two ways on how the Democratic Party and the Socialist Movement for Integration, can run in the April 25 election. With a joint list or with 2 separate lists, where the DP has on its side the historical right-wing allies such as the Republican Party, the Movement for National Development, etc, and the SMI to gather around itself some left-wing parties, and thus solve the problem of PBDNJ and PDIU in 2 different coalitions.

So far, Lulzim Basha has chosen to lie to the Democrats, that there will be two lists, as this will maximize the vote. But it is often said that opposition parties will run on a single list. The latter is both a guarantee for the maximization of votes, and a suicide for the DP.

First, the problem lies with the SMI, which will minimally demand the mandates of 2017, which it has received as a result of a major clash with the 2 main political forces SP and PD, ie 19 mandates. Thus, the SMI, for its part, retains the mandates it has, although there may be fewer votes according to all expectations based on the SMI disruption, departures, and the chaotic leadership of the party by Monika Kryemadhi, not to mention Ilir Meta?s stupidity.

Here we can add the fact, that the SMI has never been able to increase and maximize its votes in alliance with the DP. Even when they were in power, the two parties didn?t have a good cooperation in structures. On the contrary, at the base there have been clashes to the point of conflicts that can be hardly overcome.

The people of the SMI find it easier to vote for Rama and the Socialist Party, than the PD and Lulzim Basha. And that?s because they are a left-wing gang in love with the theft. Not that Basha cannot guarantee the latter, but they have it ready from Edi Rama. So coming up with a joint list, where the SMI had 17-19 seats, seems to be a deadly adventure for the DP, followed by other allies.

Other allies

The other scenario is to run together in the elections with all other allies, so in addition to the SMI in the coalition to be PDIU, LZHK, PR, PAA, PDK, PBDNJ etc. This would bring other mandates from Lulzim Basha to the winning lists.

There are almost 7 allies, where PDIU claims more than one seat just like PAA, which leads to small allies at least 7-10 seats. With a simple account there are at least 24-29 seats that the allies take the DP on the table. The others Topalli and Patozi, or Murrizi seem to be in a joint coalition.

So another opposition factor, where the goal will be to hit Rama, but also Basha and Meta.

The latter two as the merchants of the Renaissance, and Basha as a partner of Rama, and Meta as a partner in power when and where he has the opportunity.

This influx of opposition could cause a large flow of votes to the DP and the coalition that Basha will form with the SMI. Where no mandates can be secured, several thousand votes will go to Basha and Kryemadhi in vain, making it difficult or impossible for them to win the election.

What does DP lose?

Analyzing the above factors, but also the public dissatisfaction with Edi Rama, the accounts in any form with a joint coalition, lead the DP to a weakening which, may be even more painful than that of 2017. If Basha and the SMI plus some allies, will win the election with at least 75 seats, the DP itself would have about 50 seats plus minus two.

And in the case of a narrowly race won by the opposition, the DP would have almost the same mandates in 2017, and would remain hostage to the appetites of the SMI and allies. So the path of the Democratic Party seems like a big uphill, where its people push the ?chariot? of power loaded with the people of the SMI and allies, who take and distribute power, to be further strengthened at the expense of further shrinkage of the DP.

Alas, for the latter it seems that no one is already thinking. The game is the poker, which even with the account of the election victory, leads the DP to defeat. Not to mention the loss of the DP that appears in the background with Basha?s apathy, who hopes that power will come to the table from the dissatisfaction of Albanians with Rama, as well as from the alliance with the SMI. These are not enough to win, but so far one thing is certain:PD will lose a lot./CNA.al

Analiza e mandateve/ LISTA BASHA-LSI, një humbje për PD-në