Albania risks falling below 2 million inhabitants before 2035

2025-06-15 10:41:00, Sociale CNA

If the country's demographic circumstances do not change, with an increase in birth rates and a curb on immigration, Albania risks falling below the 2 million population threshold before 2035.

New official population data showed that on January 1, 2025, 2.36 million people lived in the country, a decrease of 1.8% from the 2023 Census.

The contraction of more than 27-30 thousand inhabitants per year, concentrated mainly in young people, risks taking the population indicator beyond any scenario and also makes solutions even more difficult.

In 2024, negative net migration doubled compared to the previous year with -28.8 thousand people from -13,761 people in 2023.

This rate of emigration has affected not only the total population size, but also its demographic structure, as young people and young families are the ones leaving the most.

In parallel with emigration, Albania has entered a long cycle of very low fertility at 1.3 births per woman.

This is reflected in a slight decrease in the youth dependency ratio, from 23.9% in 2024, to 23.8% in 2025 and accelerated population aging, while the old-age dependency ratio has increased by 2.2 percentage points between 2023 and 2025. Albania now has one of the oldest populations in the Balkans and Europe.

The median age of the EU in January 2025 was 44.7 years, while in Albania it was 44.3 years, according to the latest data.

The consequences are starting to be felt. The country has fewer young people entering the job market, and more older people are retiring.

Schools in entire areas risk closing due to a lack of students, and the administration and labor market suffer from a lack of human resources.

Demographers and economic experts believe that without sustained intervention, it will be difficult to keep the economy, pensions, and healthcare functioning.

For expert Ilir Gëdeshi, who has been dealing with the country's demographic developments for years, urgent policies are needed to curb emigration and others that promote birth rates in the country.

Births below the 2.1 limit per woman mean that each new generation is 40% smaller than the one retiring, putting the country facing the challenge of existence in this century.

Binomial, economy – aging

The concentration of emigration at young ages directly reduces potential productivity because human capital with education and foreign languages ??is leaving, while increasing the pension burden for the residents who remain.

The higher life expectancy of 80.9 years for women and 75.3 years for men puts more pressure on pension and healthcare spending, while our country already has public spending per capita that is 34% of the EU average.

On the other hand, the average economic growth rate 2015 – 2024 is about 3.5% per year, not sufficient to narrow the gap with the EU.

The structure of the economy is dominated by low-productivity sectors such as agriculture, manufacturing, construction, and seasonal tourism. Public finances and the labor market are already under pressure.

For every year, the dependency of the elderly on the labor force increases by 1 percentage point per year and the pension scheme requires additional funding of 0.2% of GDP per year.

To mitigate the consequences of aging, the country's economy needs to grow by more than 5% per year, institutions such as the IMF calculate.

To mitigate the effects of aging, our country must invest in the remaining population, especially in digitalization, automation in agro-processing, grants in research and development, and create a favorable environment for the return of the diaspora.

If there are no changes in current demographic indicators, the SII deficit will double within a decade.

Unless action is taken now to increase the tax base, attract human capital, and modernize key sectors, the gap between rising age and economic well-being will widen, exposing public finances and long-term growth to systemic risk.

Albania enters 2025 with an older population, higher economic dependency, and still experiencing migratory losses. These developments are putting pressure on the labor market, public finances, and economic growth model.

Emigration focused on young people is reducing the young population and increasing the relative weight of the elderly.

According to projections, Albania will reach a median age of over 47 years within the decade, if the birth and migration trajectory does not change.

The increase in overall dependency means that for every 100 people of working age, there are now 57 children or pensioners.

This deepens the pressure on pension schemes and healthcare spending and worsens the contribution-benefit ratio./ Monitor.al