Ditmir Bushati and Edward P. Joseph in "Public Square": Welcome to the era of unpredictability!

2024-12-08 10:11:00, Politikë CNA

Ditmir Bushati

Ditmir Bushati in his podcast "Public Square" held a conversation with Edward P. Joseph, from the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies.

Bushati and Joseph discussed Donald Trump's return to the White House confirming the trend seen in this election year where people almost around the world have chosen change over incumbents. Many are trying to analyze in black and white this event of important proportions not just for Americans but for the whole world, even though it is still early, even though Donald Trump has not yet officially started his duties as the president of the USA.

Analyzing the situation of Trump's victory from an insider's perspective, Joseph lists several reasons for Donald Trump's "prominent figure," which is a reflection of an important perspective of a new majority of American voters, he comes in running the country with a previous experience and a new team more ideologically oriented to fulfill the Trump agenda compared to Mike Pence.

The interlocutors also dwell on the situation in which the world is facing two major conflicts. One in Europe, the Russian aggression against Ukraine, which Trump has vowed to end within a day, and the other in the Middle East. According to Joseph, their view of the world is that: 'China is the main threat'. But unlike Democrats who see the war in Ukraine as a test that China is watching, Trump's world sees it as a distraction because it thinks we are using up all the ammunition and reserves when we should be going to war with China.

The US-Europe alliance or with NATO is another question that lingers for Trump's Presidency. What can be said so far is his behavior, his attitude towards alliances. "America first" even as a concept signals neglect towards alliances. These are worthless, boring and problematic people, they are people who do not raise their voices. We don't need them. We don't need to consult them. So he does not act in the spirit of an ally. And he neither understands nor appreciates what the US stands to gain by favoring an alliance like NATO.

What would be the consequences of US disengagement in our region in terms of security and democracy?

According to the interlocutors, the USA is the backbone, the foundation of stability in the region, because the USA expresses its security guarantee through NATO. This creates the foundation of security in the region and puts a barrier against anyone attempting major escalations. although this may not be 100% true as we have the case of Belgrade and Banjska. Will Trump change this on his first day in office? In the first Trump administration, they didn't defund everything about that, and a lot of that stuff followed. But I don't know if we can say that. And we know for sure that autocratic leaders like Viktor Orbán and Aleksandar Vu?i? and others are openly celebrating Trump's victory.

During this conversation, Bushati presented some expectations of politicians in the region that are directly related to the arrival of Donald Trump, as follows: first, the expectations from those in power, that they will have freer hands, especially with justice , media and civil society groups. Second, the expectations that the list of sanctions prepared by the Department of State will be revised. People like Milorad Dodik, for example, who was added to the sanctions list during the first administration of Donald Trump. Third, there is the expectation that the Special Chambers in The Hague (Special Court of Kosovo) will be dissolved and the US prosecutors will be removed from office. And fourth, there is also the expectation that the Balkans can somehow be used as a ground, or as a test to get closer to Russia or other major powers in the world.

Edward P. Joseph is an expert with a long experience in our region, having served for many international organizations and recently writing numerous analyzes and participating in various forums that take place regarding our region and relations with the USA ./CNA