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In the latest episode of the Public Square podcast, Ditmir Bushati welcomed for the first time a Russian scholar, Maksim Samorukov from Carnegie Russia and Eurasia, based in Berlin, to discuss Russia's perspective on the war in Ukraine and its relations with the West, China, and India.
According to Samorukov, Vladimir Putin sees the war in Ukraine as an existential confrontation, where victory is essential to maintaining Russia's status as a global power.
While for Russian society, a "victory" would suffice with preserving the annexed territories, for Putin the goal also includes installing a pro-Russian regime in Kiev and confirming Russian dominance in the post-Soviet space.
Despite Western sanctions, Samorukov stressed that the Russian economy has held up better than expected, thanks to trade with China, India and countries of the Global South, as well as increased state spending on the military sector. This has contributed to domestic stability and relative support for the war in Russian society, despite conflict fatigue.
Speaking about the future in ten years, Samorukov predicted a marginalized Russia, increasingly dependent on China, with deep demographic, social, and economic challenges. While the Russian regime may have temporary victories, he believes the price it will pay in the long term will be high.
Samorukov expressed surprise at the passive approach of European countries in the face of frozen conflicts in the Western Balkans, noting that the history of the war in Ukraine shows that such conflicts can erupt unexpectedly. He stressed that for the Kremlin, confrontation with the West has become an existential necessity that keeps the regime 's internal legitimacy alive./CNA
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