3 don't (for) critical kisses of Mr. Macron with the USA, NATO and the EU!

2024-09-10 09:19:00, Opinione CNA

The contract for the sale of combat aircraft as well as the messages of the President of France Emmanuel Macron during the "historic visit" to Belgrade (August 29-30, 2024), continue to remain in the "top-events and top-news", for the offices, institutes and media of the capitals of the Balkans, 32 countries of NATO, the EU, Russia, China, etc.

In the "capacity of the Expert of National Security, the Region and NATO", below I am presenting a strategic summary on the three attitudes, or 3 don'ts (for) the critical kisses of Mr. Macron in relation to the critical necessity for strengthening the cohesion of the Euro-Atlantic Alliance (USA/NATO/UK/EU):

Don't (for) kiss no. 1, in the military plan: signing the contract for the sale of 12 French fighter jets of the generation at a cost of about $3 billion, or twice the annual defense budget of Serbia! The Rafale costs over $115 million, or nearly half of a $60 million F-16/USA. According to the signed contract, from the annual defense budget (€1.5 billion), for each of the following 5 years (until 2029) Serbia will have to pay France $600 million (not including the high cost of armaments, operational maintenance, training, etc.), which means nearly 50% of the annual defense budget?!

Before Serbia, Croatia and Greece also bought Rafale planes from France. But Croatia, which has a defense budget almost equal to Serbia, bought 12 used planes at a cost of about $1 billion. While Greece, which has a budget 7 times larger than Serbia (€8.2 billion), spent $2.5 billion for 24 Rafales. However, this comparison is neither a reason, nor a justification, nor a geopolitical responsibility for the return of the region to the arms race or to the "Balkan powder keg"... !

3 don't (for) critical kisses of Mr. Macron with the USA, NATO and the EU!

To free him from the combative terms, I am bringing to attention a found satire of the politician and publicist, Ben Blushi: "President Vucic is like a hunter who buys expensive weapons even though he knows he will never use them." But this is much more than fairy tales with hunters, for the burden on taxpayers but also to be applied to the reality of geopolitical alliances in the Balkans.

If you look at the map of Serbia, all cross-border countries are NATO members (Hungary, Romania, Bulgaria, Montenegro, North Macedonia, Croatia and Albania), while Serbia cannot use Rafale aircraft against any member state of NATO. NATO. On the other hand, none of the countries in the region threaten Serbia, but neither "It has the courage to face the military power of the border countries" as well as "as long as the US/NATO presence in the region continues, the aggression military against the territorial integrity of Kosovo, remains a completely impossible mission".

In terms of political benefits, Aleksandar Vu?i? chose to buy the fighter jets in France and not elsewhere, not only because, for example, "the US would never give Putin's ally the F-35", but because it was not by chance that France blocked Kosovo's membership in the Council of Europe for an unknown date (convincing Germany and Italy), although the assembly of this Council, including the French deputies, voted with an absolute majority in favor of Kosovo. In this way, Vu?i? did not buy weapons (Rafalo fighter jet) but the support of France and maybe some other European country.

Economically, after receiving $3 billion, Mr. Macron said in Belgrade: "France will be the biggest defender of the rights of the Serbs in Kosovo, while they didn't even mention the Bosnian Serbs" (?!), while in July, Serbia gave Germany the biggest wealth, lithium. Serbia will pay this price, because Vucic cannot accept to remain in history as a traitor who "recognized Kosovo". When the Rafales will come to Serbia (2029), surely neither Macron nor Vu?i? will be in power, because even though he is doing the most powerful, Vu?i? is weaker than ever. For example, he "won" the elections for the Municipality of Belgrade by bringing 40 thousand voters from Bosnia, while after 5 years, Rafale planes will probably fly over Belgrade as a farewell of love.

3 don't (for) critical kisses of Mr. Macron with the USA, NATO and the EU!

Don't (for) kiss no. 2: in February 2024, President Macron made a strong and provocative statement about the principles of the Alliance: "France does not rule out the possibility of sending ground troops to Ukraine", adding that: "Nothing can be ruled out in a war at the heart of Europe. We will do whatever is necessary to ensure that Russia does not win this war"!

Further, Mr. Macron added that in the last 25 years, many leaders repeated: "never tanks, never planes, never missiles, etc., as far as the Ukrainian front, the situation was getting tougher while Russia is continuing military attacks as well as disinforming the Ukrainian public" . Therefore, he requested "the creation of a coalition to strike and supply missiles with medium and long range".

These were Mr. Macron's statements at the end of the special summit in Paris in support of Ukraine, where the 21 heads of European states, from the USA, Canada, UK, were welcomed at the Elysee Palace.

Don't (for) kiss no. 3: about 5 years ago, in July 2019, as a response to President Trump's pressure on major NATO countries, such as Germany, France, etc., for not paying 2% for defense, the President's "strong" statement comes Macron: "NATO is experiencing clinical death and the EU must build military sovereignty", while perhaps he exceeded it when he said that: "Washington is turning its back on Europe.." ?!

When President Macron was asked if he believed in the effectiveness of Article 5 of the founding treaty of NATO (if a member state is attacked, all countries are involved in war): “I don't know. What will Article 5 mean tomorrow? and argued that "Europe stands on the edge of a precipice and will have more control over its destiny, only if it starts to prepare and behave as a geopolitical power".

3 don't (for) critical kisses of Mr. Macron with the USA, NATO and the EU!

It is also known that Mr. Macron has called for the EU and Western countries to review their roles in the world and adapt to new global realities, stating that: "Western hegemony is over and that it would be a mistake to try to isolate Russia"?!

However, it is not the first time and not even a lone voice in 75 years of NATO's history of success: "as the most powerful Alliance in the history of humanity and Euro-Atlantic values"! We recall the case of Turkey, with the Russian S-400 missiles, the controversial positions of 2-3 countries regarding Putin's war, etc.

Geostrategic considerations and messages, over the 3 don'ts (for) the aforementioned kisses:

Without any doubt, France has the sovereign right to maintain and develop historical, strategic, economic, cultural, geopolitical alliances, etc. But when it comes to the sale of modern weapons (Rafale) to potential enemies or their allies (the enemy's friend is the common enemy) and the vital weight of cohesion to keep NATO's military power invincible, like any other member as well as France, it is imposed to respect the principles and basic obligations of interaction between the 32 member countries!

At first glance, they seem contradictory between the 3 don'ts (for) the above-mentioned kisses: "the sale of Rafale aircraft, the intertwining with troops in Ukraine and NATO in clinical death". But I believe that the common reason for the three not (for) kissing remains: "Mr. Macron's electoral quotas, as well as the efforts to increase the geopolitical weight of France inside and outside the Euro-Atlantic Alliance".

This "is not my Europe", asserted with revolt, the well-known German politician, Michael Roth (25 years member of the Bundeswehr, 8 years Minister for Europe in the Merkel cabinet), before the ink dried on France's agreement to sell planes combat Serbia. A statement not heard even in extreme pro-Serbian cases since 1999. Moreover, the sale of Rafale aircraft to Milosevic's soldiers remains unacceptable not only for Germany, but also for the USA, NATO and the EU.

3 don't (for) critical kisses of Mr. Macron with the USA, NATO and the EU!

Michael Roth

In fact, 5 questions are quite rightly asked: where is France going without Euro-Atlantic kisses (?) Is France in its relations with Serbia repeating the behavior when Russia invaded Crimea (?) Has France started to revive its alliances its historical and geopolitical ambitions in the case of a war in the Balkans (?). Is it acceptable that France sells combat aircraft to Serbia, which remains the only threat to peace in the Balkans, including the sovereignty of a sovereign state/Kosovo (?). Can France or even within the EU raise capacities to "self-defend without the military power of the USA and the UK"?!

After the 1990s, when the Warsaw Treaty was "collapsing without a war", front-line factors and Opponents from the European continent, "hastily" asked the question: "mission accomplished, why do we need NATO"? In the meantime, the EU through the agreements (Berlin++) has updated the political architecture and military power (ESDP/PESCO), etc., it still remains to be confirmed: "whether the EU is competitive or complementary with NATO"?!

Let's not be naive to feed "anti-American populism" or "Anglo-American danger" tweets, as I believe that everyone knows the answer, including President Macron! History takes us back to the bloody pre-World War II circumstances, when European countries made "underground" agreements with Hitler, expecting that according to the Cyclops' promise, "He would eat them last." .

I wish I was wrong, but in the strategic analysis, these not (for) "strong" kisses, aim: "to feed the army of young militants with the glory and old ambitions of France", re-remembering that, maybe not quite by chance, but in the name of these ambitions, President Charles de Gaulle, in 1966, "self-frozen" the status of France's participation in the Integrated Military Structure of NATO, for a full 42 years (1967 - 2009)!

Of course, there are rusty minds in Moscow, Belgrade and not only that they keep the candles of a Balkan war burning. The well-known Balkan strategist, Bugajski, still sees Serbia as Russia's pawn in the Balkans: "Moscow can use the Serbs to start a new war in the region." Moreover, this happens at a time when, in addition to the shameful exhaustion that awaits this winter in Ukraine, Putinist Russia has also lost hopes of igniting a new war front in the Balkans by inspiring criminal groups or the agenda of extremist politicians of the type Dodik, etc! This is also demonstrated in the strong messages from official Washington: "The USA remains committed to not allowing a war in the Region" as well as from the EU: "progress on the EU path is extremely important for the peace of the Western Balkans region" .

3 don't (for) critical kisses of Mr. Macron with the USA, NATO and the EU!

In addition, beyond the awakening (or acquisition) of historical alliances, beyond the "arming to the teeth" of Serbia and despite the misuse of Belgrade for the interests of the Kremlin, I firmly believe that peace remains the only mission, so that security is consumed beyond history bloody, in the interest of peaceful coexistence and the Euro-Atlantic perspective for the 6 countries of the Western Balkans.

Therefore, I would suggest to the officials and strategists/colleagues in the region, Washington, Brussels, etc. that the perspective of peace in the Balkans will have to be preconditioned not by the return of the arms race, but by the "planting" of 2 Measures of Reciprocal Trust, through which Official Belgrade and its allies "impose" that: (1) "will maintain the balance of military power (Mig-29, Rafale, missiles, etc.) to the level of not threatening neighbors (including Kosovo); (2) will not establish military installations and activities (20 km air distance and 5 land), on state borders between countries. These 2 conditions must be monitored by the USA/NATO/EU, which remain a critical factor for the peace and integration of the Western Balkan countries.

Also, I would fraternally advise the political factors of Pristina that: "the recycling of historical alliances as well as Belgrade's threats to the integrity of Kosovo as well as the presence of NATO, the USA", never consider them with populist triumphalism as circumstances given to Kosovo, but above all as a high state responsibility to build "modern/Euro-Atlantic Kosovo", beyond the presence of NATO (which cannot be eternal...); where, above all, citizens regardless of ethnic, religious and political affiliations feel equal before the law, as well as factoring the role of Kosovo from consumers to contributors for peace, democratic stability and integration in NATO and the EU!

At the same time, I would re-advise the state factors in Tirana and Pristina, that for vital national interests, they should kneel before the bloody history and state responsibilities by implementing a common Platform: "2-Sovereign States 1-One Nation "for the protection of national interests, guaranteeing the USA and NATO that this "delayed approach" does not threaten anyone, not even Serbia, but will contribute to long-term peace between the countries of the region".

Finally, it would be ridiculous if I pretended that the above would serve as an "erueka", or as an exhaustive analysis. Anyway, I hope it will contribute a little bit, to dynamically update the "strategic, official and public opinion" at the national, regional level, in NATO and not only.

* General Piro Ahmetaj

Expert for SK, the Region and NATO,

Vice President of the Atlantic Council; & ex:

Advisor for National Security in DP,

Advisor to the President of RS; Deputy Minister of Defense,

Military Representative in SHAPE/NATO.