Rearmament, the EU's test of turning words into deeds

2025-03-04 22:46:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

With Washington's sudden decision to suspend military aid to Ukraine in the background, worried European Union leaders will meet in Brussels on Thursday to discuss steps to strengthen the EU's defenses against Russia.

"The question that arises is no longer whether Europe's security is specifically threatened or whether Europe should take more responsibility for its security, the question that arises before us is whether Europe is prepared to act decisively according to the situation - and whether Europe is ready and able to act with the speed and ambition it needs," European Commission chief Ursula von der Leyen said ahead of the meeting, as she unveiled a multidimensional $870 billion defense financing plan for the 27-member bloc.

Such a message is being heard at numerous, urgent meetings of European leaders, concerned about a possible lack of commitment from the United States and leading to a new European commitment to more defense spending. The development comes after years of repeated demands from Washington for the EU to take more responsibility for its defense.

But EU member states are facing profound challenges as they take steps to rearm, from fragile governments and economies to confronting a skeptical population and the rise of far-right parties, often with more favorable views on Russia.

Of particular concern to many of them is the possible departure of President Trump's administration from the traditional transatlantic alliance.

“This creates some very big challenges for the future of the European Union – and I think Europeans are very aware of that,” says Ian Lesser, who heads the Brussels office of the German Marshall Fund.

"Will Europe respond to these challenges, whether those related to trade or defense – collectively? Or will member states act individually?"

Sense of urgency

For many EU leaders, the message seems to be one of unity. At the London meeting, EU states and Britain, which is no longer part of the EU, agreed to draft their own peace plan for Ukraine to present to Washington. France and Britain also backed a so-called “coalition of the willing” to send forces to Ukraine to ensure the implementation of a possible peace deal.

French President Emmanuel Macron – who has long called for a Europe with greater military autonomy – has also suggested offering France's deterrent nuclear shield to other European states.

"Finally, a sense of urgency is catching up with European leaders, but at this moment it is not enough," says analyst Olena Prokopenko from the Marshall Fund.

"We are seeing different levels of understanding of the level of threat that Europe is facing at the moment. I am seeing a degree of - I don't want to say panic - but really alarmed Europeans who are realising that they need to stick together as much as possible," says Elie Tenenbaum, of the Paris-based French Institute for International Relations.

"However, he added, Europe faces a major challenge. "If Europeans want to make up for lost American aid to Ukraine, they must do so now."

"They need to take action, order the defense industries (to produce)."

Beyond Ukraine, the Brussels-based Bruegel Institute for Policy Studies estimates that Europe needs 300,000 additional troops and hundreds of billions of dollars more to deter a potential Russian aggression without the United States.

Europe "lacks the armaments, we lack the parts to replace them, we lack the readiness," says Mr. Tenenbaum.

Former French Ambassador Michel Duclos emphasizes Europe's strengths. "It's true that we are not in a good situation," said Duclos, who works as an analyst at the Institut Montaigne in Paris. "But at the same time, demographically and economically, we (Europe) can be much stronger than Russia if we are able to unite our actions in terms of defense," he stressed.

Resistance from within

Europe's new security ambitions are already facing resistance. For example, France's far-right National Rally party has rejected the idea of ??France including Europe under its nuclear umbrella, and leader Marine Le Pen has called plans for independent European defense an "illusion."

Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban, known for his friendly ties with the Kremlin, has called on Europe to instead enter into direct talks to facilitate a ceasefire between Ukraine and Russia.

Many European economies are facing challenges, while in some countries public support for Ukraine is waning.

Recent polls show that while two-thirds of French citizens believe that Europe should continue to support Kiev, three-quarters do not want the country's military troops deployed on the ground - unless they are going to preserve a possible peace.

"So far, European leaders have tried to be more reassuring than alarmist in their messages to their citizens," says analyst Tenenbaum. "But if they want to justify higher defense spending and risk-taking, they will need to be much more vocal about the risks facing the region," he concludes./ VOA