Prigozhin's control over the Wagner group, unclear

2023-06-28 17:33:11, Kosova & Bota CNA

Prigozhin's control over the Wagner group, unclear

The leader of the Wanger group, Yevgeny Prigozhin

The departure of Wanger group leader Yevgeny Prigozhin to Belarus has left uncertainty over his control over the Wagner group. The fate and direction of the group, which includes assets and military operations around the world, is still unknown. Experts say this uncertainty could be used by the United States and the West to break the Wanger group's influence in Africa and the Middle East.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, is in Belarus and will not be prosecuted for the failed armed rebellion against the Kremlin. According to the Belarusian President, Alexander Lukashenko, he and part of his troops can stay "for a while" at their own expense in Belarus.

Catrina Doxsse, a fellow at the Center for Strategic Studies in Washington, says the rebellion represented the biggest threat to the Russian president.

"Without a doubt, it was the biggest threat to Vladimir Putin. However, I think the threat did not lie in the risk that it could result in a real coup d'état. The threat lies in the weaknesses that the rebellion exposed," says Catrina Doxsee from the Center for Strategic and International Studies.

In his speeches, after the rebellion of the mercenary group, the Russian president has tried to prove his authority. Although he criticized their leader Yevgeny Prigozhin, Mr Putin praised the mercenary group's troops for avoiding bloodshed and halting their march towards Moscow.

However, the fate and control of the Wagner group, which includes assets and military operations around the world, remains unclear.

"The deployments of the Wagner group's troops and all other military operations of this group are very important for Moscow. Basically, over the past few years, the military operations of this group have been at the forefront of Russia's efforts to expand its geopolitical influence in Africa and other regions. If they allow Prigozhin to continue to control the Wagner group, they will receive a severe blow in terms of their geopolitical influence, military and intelligence assessments, and the loss in financial terms of all the natural resources they have exploited. This last element is very important because of the high number of sanctions that the West has imposed on Russia after the attack on Ukraine", says Catrina Doxsee.

According to Ms. Doxsee, all this uncertainty, especially regarding the extensive networks of the Wanger group in Africa or the Middle East, represents a very large opportunity for the United States and the West to detach the influence of the Wanger group from these regions and focus in other countries where this group carries out activities.

On Monday, Yevgeny Prigozhin again criticized the Russian military. It is unclear whether he will be able to maintain control over the Wanger group.

The Russian president has offered Prigozhin's fighters to join the command of Russia's defense ministry, leave the service, or go to Belarus.

For his part, Progozhin said, without further explanation, that the Belarusian leader had proposed alternatives that would allow the Wagner group to operate "within the legal framework", but it was unclear what he meant by such a thing. ./ VOA