Erdogan vs Kilicdaroglu/ Who will Turkey choose?

2023-05-21 15:06:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Erdogan vs Kilicdaroglu/ Who will Turkey choose?

Illustrative photo

Turkey's strategic position and its importance as a link between Europe and Asia have made the world eagerly await the results of the presidential elections in this country.

Incumbent President Recep Tayyip Erdogan will go head-to-head with his opposition rival, Kemal Kilicdaroglu, in the May 28 runoff. In the first round, on May 14, Erdogan secured 49.51 percent of the vote - clearly more than Kilicdaroglu's 44.88 percent, but more than half the vote is needed to win the race outright.

Erdogan expressed his conviction that he will emerge victorious in the second round.

"We surpassed the nearest competitor in the election by 2.6 million votes. I believe that this figure will increase much higher in the final results", Erdogan said.

With the result achieved, Erdogan has proved that the opinion polls were wrong. Many pre-election polls have shown that his rival is on track to win in the first round. Moreover, he had the support of a bunch of parties with different orientations.

Kilicdaroglu has asked supporters to "not despair" and participate in the second round of elections.

"Young men, rise up and banish despair. Those who love their homeland go to the ballot box. We will fight until the end and we will definitely win", said Kilicdaroglu.

Sinan Ogan, the third presidential contender, won 5.2 percent of the votes, which could be decisive for the final result. However, he has given no indication of where he will direct his supporters.

"We will do our best to make this process good for our nation and country. At this moment, I am not saying that we will support one or the other party", said Ogan.

The elections in Turkey are being watched internationally to see what direction the country will take. Under Erdogan's 20-year rule, the NATO member has cultivated warmer relations with Russia, become less secular and tilted toward authoritarianism, with greater control over the media and judiciary. Erdogan's government has also accused the West of conspiring to overthrow him, while Turkey's candidacy for EU membership has long been frozen. Kilicdaroglu, who has a more pro-Western stance, has promised to reorient the country as a democracy and improve relations with NATO allies.

When asked what Kilicdaroglu's victory would mean for Turkey, Emre Erdogan, professor of political science at Bilgi University in Istanbul, said to Expose:

"First of all, pluralism. For years, Erdogan's Government has acted as a monist, presenting itself as the sole representative of the nation. The victory of the opposition candidate would bring more space for diversity and pluralism. This would be the first significant change. Then, civil liberties would also increase, freedom of expression, freedom of thought... Erdogan's government, as a result of 20 years of government, has close ties with business organizations, with some companies and some conglomerates. This, clearly, would change".

Internationally, Kilicdaroglu's potential victory would also bring changes, Louis Fishman, a professor of Middle Eastern history at Brooklyn College, told Expose. With Kilicdaroglu, according to him, Turkey will try to improve its ties with Europe and the United States.

"With the power Erdogan has, everyone would be happy to see him go - I think in Europe and the United States, because they have strained relations with him and want a fresh start. But Russia, on the other hand, would be upset by his departure. "Erdogan and the Russian president, Vladimir Putin, have had very, very close relations for 5-6 years," says Fishman.

On May 14, Turks also voted for the 600 seats in the Parliament. Even in these elections, Erdogan's party has fared well, winning the majority. Professor Emre Erdogan says that the president has managed to turn things in his favor, despite the difficult economic situation, with high inflation and unemployment, and despite the devastating consequences of the February earthquakes. According to him, Erdogan's message to put national security interests before economic challenges has convinced a significant part of his conservative and nationalist supporters. Emre Erdogan does not expect any surprises on May 28.

"Obviously, Erdogan seems to be at an advantage, because he is very close to 50 percent. His party also got the majority in the Parliament. He will use this issue of [institutional] stability and ask the voters to support the same party, both in the Parliament and in the Presidency", says Erdogan.

Even Louis Fishman, from Brooklyn College, thinks that the opposition will have a very difficult time in the runoff.

"Erdogan's government came to power 20 years ago. In 1999 there was a massive earthquake, the economy was terrible. So Erdogan has the formulas. At the same time, he also uses the nationalist card, which is really pumped up", emphasizes Fishman.

Fishman says that the media, which is mainly controlled by the Erdogan Government, will play a big role on the eve of the runoff.

"If we look at the media, the night before the elections, Erdogan appeared on 25 channels, while Kilicdaroglu appeared on only two or three channels. I am talking about the main channels that are seen in Turkey. On the night of the elections, however, we had a leading agency that consistently showed Erdogan in a better position than the polls initially presented. So, this is also demoralizing," he says.

European election observers have said that the voting process in Turkey was generally "well organized". But the current president has had an "unjustified advantage", including one-sided media coverage", said the Special Coordinator of the OSCE, Michael Georg Link.

Both Professor Erdogan and Fishman warn that the pre-runoff campaign could be fierce. Ahead of the May 14 vote, Erdogan has disparaged the opposition, saying it is backed by the outlawed Kurdistan Workers' Party. Kilicdaroglu has said that Erdogan has failed to achieve the result he wanted, despite having "slandered and insulted" the opposition. Analysts say that both Erdogan and Kilicdaroglu now have their eyes on the votes won by the third candidate. While Sinan Ogan awaits the offers that may be made to him by the Government or the opposition, analysts say that the former nationalist MP has an ideology that suits Erdogan's alliance better.

Victory would give Erdogan a third term. Sometimes as prime minister, sometimes as president, he has been in power since 2002. This means that he has led the country longer than any Turkish president and even many Ottoman sultans.

Kilicdaroglu's victory, on the other hand, would symbolize the desire of a large part of the electorate for changes. Turkish citizens will turn to the ballot boxes at the end of March next year, for local elections. The two main opposition parties have in the past nominated joint candidates, succeeding in winning mayoral positions in major metropolitan areas. Analysts say a possible split in the opposition would allow Erdogan's party to extend its control to large municipalities, such as Istanbul and Ankara. In the US, Senator Chris Murphy, a member of the Senate Committee on Foreign Relations, has said that Turkey will be a vital partner of the US, regardless of who will lead this country./ Rel