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American analyst: It would be difficult for Putin to cope with the loss of Crimea

2023-05-20 09:36:00, Kosova & Bota CNA
American analyst: It would be difficult for Putin to cope with the loss of
In Sevastopol, on the occupied Ukrainian peninsula of Crimea

Francis Fukuyama is an American political analyst at Stanford University who is perhaps best known for his 1992 essay "The End of History," where he argued that the end of the war of ideologies was very near.

Radio Free Europe's Georgian service interviewed Fukayaman after his recent appearance at the Center for Economic Policy Research in Tbilisi.

Among other things, Fukayama talked about when the time is right for "real negotiations" between Moscow and Kiev, which side is expected to lose, and how Georgia's neutrality benefits Russia.

Radio Free Europe: Let's start discussing the Russia-Ukraine war. In a broad perspective, what is the actual risk?

Francis Fukuyama:  I think the possibility that Russia will fail in this war has already been decided by the Ukrainian forces and their heroic ability to defend themselves.

Currently, we are in a phase of the war where there has been a kind of pause for a while; Russia continues to lose a significant number of Russian troops in the ongoing attempt to take this small town called Bahmut in the Donbass region. However, everyone is expecting an attack from the Ukrainian side, and I think this will be very critical regarding the end of the war, because if the Ukrainian forces succeed in gaining freedom in these two regions in the south, precisely in Kherson and Zaporizhzhia , then we will be at a point where we can talk about negotiations. And, you may see some kind of truce, which is likely to be observed for a pretty long time. Right now, I think that if there were peace negotiations, it would be very bad for Ukraine, because it would give the Russians a good chunk of Ukrainian territory. And,

American analyst: It would be difficult for Putin to cope with the loss of
Francis Fukuyama during the interview

Radio Free Europe: What do you think will happen to Crimea [occupied by Russia] if there are negotiations?

Francis Fukayama:  Well, I believe it could be a point of weakness for Russia, because if the Ukrainians are successful in liberating the Kherson region, they will have cut off Crimea from the rest of Russian-controlled territory. There is a train route connecting Russia to the Crimea, as well as the strait bridge, and they would be able to effectively cut off both of these arteries. And, at that point, they don't even need to attack Crimea; they can just hold all Russian forces there hostage. And, that would be a significant vulnerability that Ukraine would have against Russia.

RFE/RL: From a geopolitical point of view, if Russia is forced to give up Crimea in any negotiation, could it be called a loser, even by the domestic audience in Russia?

Francis Fukayama:  Given how much they've invested in regaining Crimea, it's hard to see how Putin would survive it if he had to give it up. Therefore, I believe they will be in a very difficult situation. However, the Ukrainians don't even have to take back Crimea. They can stop it. They can put considerable pressure on the Russians at any time. And so it would be a very big strategic advantage for them.

RFE/RL: To understand better, let's take your scenario: They don't actually invade Crimea, they surround it. After negotiations, Russia is asked to give up Crimea. Can we negotiate this with Russia?

Francis Fukayama:  Politically, it would be quite challenging. It is also unclear whether Ukraine would be willing to transfer part of the Donbas [area of ??eastern Ukraine], as it would be a nightmare for them to be forced to administer the territory in its current conditions. [Editor's note: Russian forces or their Ukrainian separatist proxies have since 2014 controlled large areas of the Russian-speaking regions of Luhansk and Donetsk, where they have been accused of killing, expelling and persecuting pro-Kiev residents.]

American analyst: It would be difficult for Putin to cope with the loss of

At that point, both sides are vulnerable and have something to lose. So at that point, you can engage in a more practical form of discussion. However, I do not see any official agreement between the two sides to give up Crimea or Donbass. So, I believe you will need a less formal agreement.

Radio Free Europe: You wrote more than a year ago that "Russia is heading for complete defeat in the war with Ukraine." So, more than a year later, how does the forecast hold up?

Francis Fukayama:  At the time I wrote this, Russian forces were still trying to encircle Kiev in an attempt to topple the government of Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. Since then, [Russian troops] have been forced to withdraw from northern Ukraine, from Kharkiv and then from Kherson [city], showing weakness. There seems to be a bit of a stalemate now, but I believe [the Ukrainian army] will end it. So I still have faith in Ukraine's ability to defend itself, even though it has taken longer than I anticipated.

Radio Free Europe: What is at stake for Georgia in the Russian invasion of Ukraine?

Francis Fukayama:  Well, everything is at stake for Georgia. There is a fork in the road that Georgia is on now: continue its efforts to become part of Europe, part of the EU, maybe even join NATO, or go in the direction Russian. And, there are forces in Georgia pulling him politically in both directions. But whether it will go one way or the other will depend a lot on what happens in Ukraine, because the stronger Russia is, the more the Russian path is determined. And conversely, whenever [Russian President Vladimir] Putin weakens, every country around Russia has more leeway. So, I think the fate of Georgia is tied to this war in Ukraine.

Radio Free Europe: You, like many others, are a vocal critic of Georgia's inadequate support for Ukraine. And, let me ask you: What could and should they have done to avoid such criticism?

Francis Fukayama:  Well, it would be good if the Georgian Government had taken a clear stand in support of Ukraine. I think neutrality only benefits Russia. And, there are many reports and evidence that Georgia is actually quietly helping Russia evade sanctions that have been imposed by Europe and the United States.

Radio Free Europe: Something the Georgian Government constantly denies.

Francis Fukayama:  Yes, that is a problem, the fact that this government is not transparent about its motives and what it is really doing. And so it can play a double game where it pretends to be neutral but, in fact, it is helping one side [more] than the other. And I think that's a consequence of the kind of pro-Russian bias that this government has.

Radio Free Europe: You stated during your speech that Georgian participation in the EU would be unthinkable as long as [former prime minister and founder of the ruling Georgian Dream party, Bidzina] Ivanishvili and supporters remain in power. I would like to ask you a hypothetical question. Would things have been different if Ivanishvili and the Georgian Dream had adopted a more pro-Western foreign policy, especially towards Ukraine? So, would a European future seem more feasible for Georgia?

Francis Fukayama:  It would have been more realistic in my opinion. They, in my opinion, have done everything in their power to prevent entry into the European Union. Therefore, I believe they are mistreating [imprisoned former president] Misha Saakashvili, because it will anger the Europeans. It will be difficult if he dies while in their care.

And, this is a real problem because all polling data [and other] evidence suggests that a significant number of Georgians are pro-European rather than pro-Russian; and so the government really needs to figure out how to block that, and I think that's what they're looking to do.

And, this means that the policy on the part of Europe and the United States should be a policy that is not directed against Georgia as a whole country, but actually... it should be directed at the Government that is causes this shift towards Russia./ REL





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