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Poisoning, coup or an attack by Prigozhin?/ In the "box of vipers" of Moscow, the survival of the fittest is at risk

2023-05-19 08:13:00, Kosova & Bota CNA
Poisoning, coup or an attack by Prigozhin?/ In the "box of vipers" of
Illustrative photo

Flags of Putin's army, soldiers deserting, allies in limbo, and the Kremlin's new narrative signaling weakness. Hopefully the end of this regime is near, but the question is how will this happen? Poisoning, a coup in the palace, or an attack by Prigozhin?

Putin is too popular to be attacked directly, but Yevgeny Prigozhin, who heads the mercenary army the Wagner Group, has been blasting out daily in scathing accusations against Putin's army and its failed strategies. He is undermining the regime, rebranding himself as a patriotic fighter in military camouflage who speaks truth to power.

Until now, he has escaped the "window tax", the loss of life by throwing himself from a high-rise building in a staged suicide, as has happened to other critics. That's because he has an army, or maybe because he's working with Putin to shift all the blame for major military failures to the generals.

Whatever the reason, Prigozhin has made clear his ambition if there is to be a change in the ranks of the regime. Others wait in the wings, while Prigozhin launches direct attacks: "The wings are failing. The front is collapsing. Moscow must stop lying about the situation in Bakhmut. This will bring a great tragedy for Russia!"

Putin is more isolated than ever, for reasons of personal security. On May 9, he appeared before a small crowd in Red Square to celebrate Victory Day and the Great Patriotic War against Hitler that ended in 1945.

While the modest parade was taking place, Prigozhin published his most emotional video on the Internet: "Congratulations on the Victory Day achieved by our grandfathers. But what are we celebrating? We just have to remember our grandparents and that's it. And not to go around in Red Square".

That statement followed a public threat by Prigozhin to withdraw his mercenaries from the most difficult point on the front, Bakhmut. He claimed that the Russian army had refused to supply his troops with sufficient ammunition, and then convinced Chechen leader Ramzan Kadyrov, another evil and ruthless warlord with mercenary soldiers, to support his troops.

Such solidarity and opposition was labeled by the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) as a clear case of "blackmail" that is clearly counter-productive to Russia's war. "The decision to blackmail and then humiliate the Russian military command may have expended a sufficient amount of Prigozhin and Kadyrov's political capital to influence military decision-making at the operational and strategic level," ISW speculated this week. Prigozhin has already lost Putin's support in recent months, and the joining of forces shows that he needed Kadyrov's own capital to successfully blackmail the command into sending him additional ammunition.

Putin is avoiding firing the generals, but has not hesitated to clash with some of them. Quite a few senior military personnel have been killed in recent months, as has happened to many oligarchs and politicians. IS says that this infighting raises "questions about Russia's ability to coordinate a coherent defense campaign across the front".

But Prigozhin does not give up. A few days after giving his ultimatum to withdraw, he backed down because he had been promised ammunition. Then, hours later, he tweeted that Russia's Defense Ministry had refused and "lied" to him, sending him a letter threatening to charge him and his army with treason if they backed down.

That's why he didn't do it. However, his behavior is dangerous, and his continued existence is a good sign that the dome has shaken and that Putin's days at the helm of the country may be numbered. Reports say mutinies have increased in the ranks of the Russian army.

Last week, Russian troops were caught on camera withdrawing, or abandoning their posts in newly occupied regions, often making off with stolen objects. Ben Hodgs, a retired US Army officer who served as commander of US Army Europe, predicts that Russian forces could "collapse" before the end of the year due to poor leadership, withdrawals and casualties. large in number.

If the front starts to crumble, or if Crimea is invaded or blocked, many analysts think that a coup will take place in Moscow by the Siloviki (members of the security organs) and the oligarchs. Closed-door negotiations will then take place to accept his resignation, and to choose a successor that includes members of the siloviki (security forces and the FSB); the military and the oligarchs.

Presumably, Prigozhin, Kadyrov and others who have mercenary armies will have a seat at that table, and may even be presented as contenders. A perceived defeat would eliminate the possibility of a military man as president, leaving Nikolai Patrushev, the former head of the FSB and currently Secretary of Russia's Security Council, as the leading candidate.

He is a backroom operative (like his son Dimitri, Minister of Agriculture) and an experienced hardliner who began his career as a spy with Putin. In 2014, it organized the invasion of Ukraine and the occupation of Donbass and Crimea, and it is very anti-American and anti-Western.

But it is also deceptive. In early November 2021, he met with CIA Director William Burns in Moscow. He knew of Russia's plans, but Patrushev adamantly denied such plans, although it was later revealed that he strongly supported them. He is also an ally of General Sergei Shoigu - who has been thoroughly discredited by Prigozhin along with other military leaders.

But as soon as the war ends, the army will be tainted by defeat, which means that a "civilian" like Patrushev will be the first on the list of contenders. On the other hand, he is one of Putin's closest advisers, and is "the most dangerous man in Russia" because of his "conspiracy-oriented paranoid mind," says Mark Galeotti, an expert on Russian politics and security. .

But Patrushev is not Mikail Gorbachev. Neither is Putin's political assistant, former president and prime minister Dimitri Medvedev. Like Prigozhin, he has created a new public image as a hard-line nationalist, posting threatening, nationalistic and near-hysterical statements against the West.

Another successful technocratic candidate is current Prime Minister Mikhail Mishustin, an experienced finance, tax and technology expert. But none of these will meet the criteria if Russia loses the war, and the nation descends into economic or social chaos.

In that scenario, elites are likely to rally around a "strongman" to take over, not a skilled technocrat. This could create space for the disorderly Prigozhin, with or without Kadyrov, or for former Deputy Defense Minister Mikail Mazinciv, the "Butcher of Mariupol", who now serves in Prigozhin's Wagner Group./ Adapted from CNA.al





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