Putin killed 100 thousand Ukrainian soldiers, after 10 years Ukraine will have half the population it had in 1993

2023-10-03 22:22:00, Blog Andrea Nicastro

Putin killed 100 thousand Ukrainian soldiers, after 10 years Ukraine will have

Demographics Ella Bibiavava, director of the Academy of Sciences of Ukraine, is confident about the figures she gives. Only a few days ago, Russian President Vladimir Putin spoke about 71,000 Ukrainian soldiers killed since the beginning of the war. Meanwhile, Kiev does not provide data.

What is the real death toll?

100 thousand, and these only among the military.

How do you calculate this?

Official data on deaths is secret. So we have to make do with estimates. At the Ptoukha National Institute, we used the number of births (which remained public) and many other indicators including cell phone SIM cards. To avoid counting those who have 2 phones, we have access to their location. Combining everything, we can say that unfortunately we have over 100 thousand killed. These are mostly men and in the most productive moment of life.

What about civilians?

We need to understand whether or not my husband who died of a heart attack during a bombing should be considered a victim of war. But the biggest problem is the number of victims in the occupied areas. In this case, the "black hole" is Mariupol, which may have had tens of thousands of victims during the several-week siege. We will probably never know the exact number. However, the total remains far below that of the army.

Professor Lebanonva says terrible things with complete calmness when she talks about the numbers that are her work tool. But he gets bored when he has to put a name to what is read in the graphics "depopulation".

If the war ends in 2025, we estimate that in 2033 there will be between 26-32 million Ukrainians. We cannot narrow this gap because there are many unknowns ahead. How many refugees and immigrants will return from abroad? Will there be security and economic recovery? These variables are unpredictable and will affect the choices of large social groups.

In 1993, two years after the dissolution of the USSR, Ukraine had 52.3 million inhabitants. In your worst case scenario, 40 years later in 2033 could she have half of it?

We were heading in that direction even before the war. We had been experiencing declining birthrates and depopulation for years. The birth rate in 2021 was only 1.2 children per woman, and to make matters worse there were 3 million immigrants. It's not like you Italians, without immigration, would be much better off. The demographic crisis is affecting all of Europe, but the war has turned it into a tragedy in our country. In 2022, the birth rate fell to 0.9 children and next year I expect it to be 0.7. Then the refugees were added.

That can be returned...

Thankfully, there are fewer refugees in Europe today than the 7 million I often hear. The maximum figure is 4 million, to which we must add 1.2 million located in Russia and another 1 million between Great Britain and North America. The problem is that they are mostly women and children and with the men away it is hard to get pregnant.

Also, it's hard to think about giving birth in a country at war...

Will has its importance, but so do statistical trends. The age groups most damaged by the fighting are precisely those of reproductive age, and this will have serious consequences for the demographic curve for decades to come. The number of people between the ages of 20-64 will fall by 15 percent. While that of women in the most fertile age between 20-34 years old will fall by 11 percent. With these numbers, we cannot get out of the demographic "winter".

So you don't foresee anything positive?

Ukrainians have a strong connection to their homeland. In the first months of the war, 200,000 men who were overseas returned to fight. It can be expected that with the coming of peace, many of the refugees and immigrants will return. But we must succeed in winning the post-war period.

What do you mean by that?

That we need security and economic conditions to be able to persuade most of the 9 million Ukrainians currently abroad to return. They are our national treasure. 70 percent of refugee women have higher education, and represent the cream of society. If the war ends, insecurity will continue and it will be their husbands who will join them abroad and not the other way around. It would be a grim scenario for Ukraine./ " Corriere della Sera " - Reported by CNA