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Three years into the war in Ukraine/ A long and costly conflict

2025-02-24 09:15:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

February 24, 2025 marks the third year since the start of the war in Ukraine.

Russia struggled to achieve a quick victory, and the war has turned into a bitter struggle, with neither side making dramatic advances on the battlefield. Russia had some momentum in 2024, but recorded only modest territorial gains and failed to drive Ukrainian forces out of Russia's Kursk region.

The Russia-Ukraine war, the bloodiest in Europe since World War II, began 11 years ago. Following Ukraine's Maidan Revolution, Russian forces occupied Crimea in early 2014. Russia then became involved in the fighting in Donbas, which left Russian and Russian proxy forces occupying parts of Donetsk and Luhansk in eastern Ukraine.

Russia’s multi-vector invasion on February 24, 2022, appeared to have two objectives: to quickly take Kiev and to occupy the eastern half to two-thirds of Ukraine. To the surprise of almost everyone, Ukrainian forces halted the Russian army near the capital, drove it from the north, and later launched successful counteroffensives to the east and south. The Ukrainians launched further counteroffensives in 2023, but equipment limitations and extensive Russian defensive fortifications hampered those operations. By early 2024, the war had degenerated into a war of attrition.

Ukraine’s military, which numbers about 900,000 compared to Russia’s 1.3 million, has struggled with manpower issues, though it is trying new ways to attract recruits. As they have since 2022, Ukrainians remain critically dependent on Western weapons and ammunition. The Trump administration has not asked Congress for new funding for military aid to Kiev, meaning the flow of American weapons will eventually cease, as it did when funding ran out at the end of 2023 (which hurt Ukraine). Europe’s defense industrial base would struggle to meet Ukraine’s needs on its own.

If one side had momentum in 2024, it was the Russians, but they made only limited territorial gains. By early 2025, the Russian military controlled about 18% of Ukraine’s territory. It added 1,500 square miles during 2024, but that’s less than 1% of Ukraine. The Russian military has failed to retake part of Russia’s Kursk region that the Ukrainian military captured in August.

The Russians have paid a heavy price over the past three years, suffering an estimated 172,000 dead and 611,000 wounded, many of them seriously. (While the Ukrainians have also suffered heavy casualties, they are believed to be significantly fewer.) The Russians have also suffered heavy losses of equipment, including some 14,000 main battle tanks and armored vehicles./CNA