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After Prigoshin's rebellion, Putin no longer seems invulnerable

2023-06-26 08:07:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

From rebellion to withdrawal in 24 hours - the uprising of the head of the Wagner troupe, Prigoshin exposes the weaknesses of Putin's ruling system. What will be done next after the weekend rebellion?

The uprising of the Wagner troupe was the rebellion of a self-made monster, writes tagesschau in an analysis of it (25.0.6). Vladimir Putin has supported the creation of private armies in Russia for years, and the Wagner Corps has been the largest and strongest among them. For Putin, this was a convenient construct for a long time. A well-trained body of recruits used in conflicts such as Mali, Libya or other countries to strengthen Russia's influence and strategic claims. At the same time, Russia could deny that it was part of these conflicts. An attractive financial model was created for the Wagner group, which helped it gain access to conflict zones and raw materials such as gold.

Putin's model of private armies failed

But the war against Ukraine turned the Wagner group into a domestic political factor. Its leader, Yevgeni Prigoshin, recruited fighters in prisons and helped the Russian army with additional forces. His fighters proved more motivated in Ukraine, and Prigoshin made this known to the public in Russia. If this is really so, that is something else, the Russian army generals themselves always doubted this. But in the meantime Prigoshin was impossible to control anymore, the conflict with the leaders of the Russian army, the Minister of Defense, Sergei Shoigu and the chief of staff of general, Valeri Gerasimov since the fall was escalating up- to the likely attacks of the Russian army on the Wagner soldiers - a conflict that on Saturday (24.06.) escalated dramatically. Private armies function on the basis of loyalty and subordination to the existing system. How independent such groups can become, risking the system itself, this was very clearly shown by Saturday's developments.

The Körber Foundation's expert on Russia, Leslie Schübel, tells ARD that this is "the end of the Wagner group, and we will no longer see them like in the past fighting in Ukraine. The other fighters will either be reintegrated into the Ministry of Defense with new contracts will definitely not take part in the fighting in Ukraine anymore. However, at the moment it is unclear how the developments will go."

The weakness of the military and intelligence services

In less than 24 hours, Prigoshin's troops, according to their own data, approached Moscow about 200 km. They did not encounter any major resistance. It is not known if their march would have continued at this pace, but it is known that important military bases, such as Rostov, his soldiers managed to take without major problems. One reason for this is that the Russian army has a large part of its soldiers in Ukraine or in the border regions. The rapid progress is an indicator of the state of defense within the country. The insurgency is also a failure for the news services, they apparently failed to identify the insurgency on Saturday. According to information in the media, the American secret services learned about certain preparations a few days ago and informed the members of the American Congress.

Prigoshin si alternativë?

Kur në vitin 1992 pjesë të ushtrisë u ngritën kundër presidentit të atëhershëm të Bashkimit Sovjetik, Mihail Gorvatçov, populli ishte kundër puçistëve. Nga Rostovi dhe Voroneshi të shtunën nuk erdhën njoftime për kundërshtime të trupave të Prigoshin. Videot në mediat sociale kanë treguar më shumë njerëzi që i përshëndesnin trupat dhe shprehnin miratimin për ta. Edhe pse video të tilla nuk mund të verifikohen ato mund të jenë një sinjal, se trupat dhe Prigoshin shihet si një alternativë për të pakënaqurit në Rusi. Një faktor mund të jetë që Prigoshin e tregonte veten gjithmonë në front, ndryshe nga drejtuesit e ushtrisë ruse.

Trupat e Prigoshin perceptohen në Rusi si luftëtarë brutalë të suksesshëm dhe ultranacionalistë. Ky kombinim me sa duket prek shumë rusë. Opozita përndiqet, nacionalizmi është i dëshiruar, ky kaq qenë edhe mesazhi jo i drejtpërdrejtë i Putinit. Po kjo krijon hapësira për aktorë si Prigoshin, për sa kohë që respektojnë rregullat e lojës. Kryengritja e fundjavës tregoi, se ky model ka rreziqet dhe kufijtë e tij.

Pasojat e së shtunës do të tregohen në javët e ardhshme

Putin i ka ndjekur për disa muaj pa komentuar pretendimet e ngritura nga Prigoshin dhe kritikat e ashpra kundër ushtrisë ruse të bëra publikisht. Ditën e revoltës madje ai as nuk e përmendi me emër Prigoshin dhe trupat e tij. Deklarata e tij për "thikën pas shpine" mbeti pa pasojë. Tani ata duhet të integrohen, si ishte e planifikuar, në ushtrinë ruse, nëse e duan këtë. Putin në këtë konflikt u paraqit i pavendosur dhe hezitues, ndryshe nga imazhi i liderit të vendosur që ai paraqet dhe që bën shumë ta ruajë. Deri tani pushteti i Putinit bazohej në premtimin e stabilitetit: një shtet pak e shumë funksionues, që qytetarëve të tij pak a shumë u ofron një nivel të caktuar sado minimal të jetesës, nga ana e tyre qytetarët e linin atë të bënte politikën e vet. Ky model ka pësuar çarje. Putin mbështetej tek shërbimet informative zyrtare dhe jo zyrtare ka qenë deri tani faktori balancues mes interesave konkurruese, edhe ky model nuk funksionon më si më parë, si e tregoi edhe kryengritja e Prigoshin, edhe pse ai sipas fjalëve të veta nuk drejtohen kundër Putinit por lidershipit të ushtrisë. Por nuk është më e sigurtë që Putini pas 24 qershorit mund t'i mbajë nën kontroll rivalitetet e shërbimeve.

What this means for Putin's rule in the medium and long term is unknown. According to observers, the Russian president wants to be re-elected next year. For this he also changed the constitution in 2020. It is not known if this plan works. The aftermath of Saturday will be told in the coming weeks. With Saturday's uprising against Putin, the last chance of his regime is more visible to the citizens. The idea that there could be another president besides Putin has entered people's minds, says Körber Foundation expert Lesli Schübel./ DW