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Belarus is renovating the abandoned garrison, but for whom?

2023-07-04 07:51:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

The Belarusian town of Tsel seems to be an ideal destination to get away from the hustle and bustle of city life, as it is located along a river and surrounded by trees, about 90 kilometers southeast of Minsk.

Asipovic district headquarters and Minsk locals have recently bought properties in Tsel to use as weekend "getaways" from the city.

However, this may change soon.

Locally, word has circulated that Belarus is renovating the abandoned military garrison in Tsel. Some citizens fear it could be used to house Wagner's fighters, who have been given the chance to move into Belarus after a shocking, short-lived rebellion that rocked Russia.

Something is definitely going on in Tsel, according to satellite photos released by Planet Labs.

Images taken on June 17 and 27 are compared to reveal the appearance of the same objects in several locations; these objects can be stacked tents or large pieces of equipment.

According to Oleh Zhdanov, a military analyst from Ukraine who reviewed the satellite images, told RFE/RL that these could be prefabricated houses. However, he claimed that it is impossible for the facility to be renovated for Wagner's troops, given the recent rebellion and suspicious events that ended it.

"It has been a while to start building a camp specifically for the Wagner group. This is unrealistic," Zhdanov said.

Yevgeny Prigozhin, who had been a vocal critic of Russia's military leadership for months, announced on June 23 that his forces would make a "march of justice" to Russia from Ukraine, where they played a key role and carried out heavy killings during the fighting for the city of Bahmut in the Donetsk region.

Mercenaries of the Wagner group effectively took control of Rostov-on-Don, a large city in the south, while another group set off on a highway to Moscow. Russian President Vladimir Putin condemned the "armed rebellion" and warned that those behind it were traitors who would be held accountable.

Prigozhin abruptly called off the "operation" on June 24, saying that his unit was about 200 kilometers from Moscow, but that he wanted to prevent bloodshed.

The Kremlin and Lukashenka said they had reached a deal in which Wagner's mercenaries would avoid punishment and Prigozhin would be relocated to Belarus. Fighters from the Wagner group could join the Russian army, return home or travel to Belarus, according to Putin in June 26 statements.

The specifics of the alleged agreement have not been made public. The Washington-based Institute for the Study of War (ISW) reported on June 28 that the three sides appeared to be negotiating the details of the deal.

Lukashenka reported on June 27 that Prigozhin had arrived in Minsk as part of the deal. According to flight records, Prigozhin's private jet landed in Minsk that day, but returned to St. Petersburg, where the Wagner leader is based, on June 28.

Prigozhin has not been seen since he was photographed leaving Rostov-on-Don in the back seat of a white SUV on June 24.

He has not commented on his whereabouts since then and there has been no definite sign that any of Wagner's fighters have gone to Belarus.

Lukashenka showed interest in having Wagner's soldiers stationed in Belarus and exercise his troops, despite the fact that they are more experienced and had fought more effectively in Ukraine than regular Russian forces.

"We are not building a camp for them, right now. If they want [to settle here], we will find a place for them. We have offered them one of our abandoned garrisons," he said on June 27, without naming a specific location.

This statement by Lukashenka could potentially describe the place in Tsel -- but renovation there began in early June, weeks before Prigozhin's uprising.

According to Zhdanov, the visible construction there may be for non-Wagnerian Russian soldiers to undergo training in Belarus, as others have since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 - one of the ways how Lukashenka has supported Moscow's war without sending Belarusian troops to fight in it.

Many of the Russian soldiers who had trained in Belarus were called up as part of Putin's major mobilization in September 2022.

While the Kremlin claimed it had met its target of up to 300,000 soldiers within weeks of the announcement, the Russian Defense Ministry has continued to send troops as part of the military even as it faces a shrinking workforce.

Some experts have predicted that Russia could announce a second wave of large-scale mobilization as it suffers heavy casualties and Ukraine moves forward with the counteroffensive launched in early June.

Zhdanov noted that Tsel is only 30 kilometers from a base in Asipovic where Russian soldiers are training for eventual deployment to Ukraine.

According to Russian officials, Moscow will maintain custody of the weapons and may send troops to Belarus to maintain and monitor them. However, it is not known how many personnel Russia may send to Belarus for this purpose.

A missile brigade has recently found refuge in Tsel, earning the nickname "the cradle of the Belarusian missile forces".

Tsel was home to 1,500 military personnel in the 1990s, including soldiers transferred from former Warsaw Pact countries after the fall of the Berlin Wall and the end of communism in Eastern Europe in 1989.

The number of servicemen in Tsel dwindled to approximately 200 over time as the Belarusian armed forces were disbanded following the collapse of the Soviet Union and the end of the Cold War.

The barracks were abandoned in 2018 after the last soldiers moved to a location closer to Asipovic.

An independent Russian-language media outlet, Vyorstka, reported on June 27 that Belarus was building several camps for about 8,000 fighters of the Wagner group, some of whom could be stationed near Asipovic.

Many Russian prisoners, who were promised freedom in exchange for six months of combat service, are in Wagner's ranks. After returning from Ukraine, a number of former detainees committed violent acts.

The silence about what is happening in Tsel has left the locals worried.

"Where there's smoke, there's fire. We are preparing for the worst," said a resident whose name was not given to the Belarusian newspaper Nasha Niva./ Rel