Aging and emigration, high risk for the country's economic prospects

2025-01-31 08:18:00, Ekonomi CNA

Albania's demographic transition, with a high level of emigration in young ages and a rapid aging of the population, is a high-risk factor for Albania's economic sustainability, the EBRD assesses in the draft cooperation strategy 2025-2030.

Of the four risks that threaten the economic security of our country, such as: insufficient institutional capacities, demographic developments, climate impact and external developments, two of these, "Demographic factor" and "Uncertainty in foreign markets" were assessed as very high impact risks.

The latest results of the 2023 Census showed that the country's population shrank by about 14.8% between 2011 and 2023, while the median age during this period increased by 7.5 years.

Unlike other European countries, the demographic transition in Albania has been taking place for more than three decades, with more people leaving the country than coming in. The emigration of young people has created a gap in the country's workforce and is becoming an obstacle to the development of some sectors such as agriculture and tourism.

Although the country's economy has grown more than the average of the past decade after the Covid-19 pandemic, a large portion of the population, even with above-average incomes, still wants to leave.

A "Monitor" survey of 1044 people (857 living in the country and 187 abroad) conducted in September 2024 through the ECR (Engaged Citizens Reporting) platform with random sampling and does not constitute scientific findings, highlighted a new trend of emigration of educated and well-off people.

Over 94% of the participants had higher education and almost half had a PhD degree. Of the respondents living in Albania, 40% had prepared plans and infrastructure to leave within the next two years. 33% of those who stated that they had considered leaving belonged to the 40-49 age group.

Unlike the general population, which sees economic status and employment as the main reasons for emigration, the middle class and professionals see the main reason why they have decided to leave Albania as the lack of hope that things can improve and also consider the lack of quality in health and education services as important. Here are all the reasons that are driving the middle class away.

Emigration in Albania has taken on the dimensions of a gangrene, which has remained without a diagnosis, and consequently without a cure on how to stop it before the effects are irreparable. International financial institutions and recently the EBRD assessed the demographic factor as a high risk for the country's economic prospects./ Monitor Magazine