Exports slow the decline in November, textiles and metals weaker

2024-12-17 15:04:00, Ekonomi CNA

Exports have continued with their shrinking trend in November, although at slower rates than in previous months.

However, for the entire 11 months they are 13.9% lower than a year ago (from 14.3%, which was the contraction for the 10th month). The main reasons for the negative trend in 11 months are related to the fall of the euro that shrinks the income of exporters, the decrease in the competitiveness of Albanian businesses both from the devaluation of the euro and from the increase in costs, as well as the unfavorable conjuncture of goods in international markets.

In November, the decline slowed somewhat, as a result of the good performance of food products and machinery and equipment. While the main effect on the negative performance of exports in October was given by the temporary closure of the activity of the steel producer, Kurum, one of the largest exporters in the country, as well as the poor situation with textiles and shoes.

According to INSTAT data, in November 2024, exports of goods reached the value of ALL 30.1 billion, decreasing by -8.5%, compared to the same period a year ago. The trend improved compared to October, when the decline was 15.2%.

In September the contraction was 8.5%, in August the decline was 18%, in July the contraction was 12% and in June it was 8.9%. In May, the contraction on an annual basis was 12.4%. In April 2024, exports of goods had increased for the first time in many months by 1.8% on an annual basis. In March, exports decreased by -21%, in February by -16.1% and in January by -29.2%.

According to INSTAT, During the month of November 2024, the reduction of exports by -8.5% was influenced by the following groups: "Construction materials and metals" with -8.8 percentage points, "Textiles and shoes" with -3.4 percentage points, "Chemical and plastic products" with -1.7 percentage points, etc. While the following groups have had a positive impact: "Food, beverages, tobacco" with 2.5 percentage points, Machinery, equipment and spare parts" with 1.4 percentage points, "Minerals, fuel, electricity" with 0.4 percentage points .

Exports, during this ten-month period, decreased by -13.9%, compared to a year ago. The groups that have negatively affected the annual decrease in exports are: "Minerals, fuels, electricity" with -5.2 percentage points, "Textiles and shoes" with -4.8 percentage points, "Construction materials and metals" with -2.7 percentage points.

Textiles and shoes do not stop falling

In November, exports of textiles and shoes, the largest exporting group in the country, fell by 10.7%. For the 11th month, textile-shoe exports were 97.8 billion ALL, with a contraction of 16.6% on an annual basis.

The industry is being negatively affected by the increase in costs that has caused partners to move to the Middle East, reducing orders, and especially the devaluation of the euro, which reduces their income when converted to lek.

On the other hand, demand has decreased as a result of the change in consumer behavior in Europe due to the economic crisis.

Exporters claim that they have little hope for the recovery of activity as a result of the decrease in competitiveness and the weak demand for clothing and footwear in international markets.

Minerals, fuels return to easy growth

Exports in the "Minerals, fuels, energy" group increased by 2.8% in October. This group is affected by the performance of Bankers Petroleum, the country's largest exporter, and by weather-related electricity trading. For the 11th month, this group recorded exports worth almost ALL 67 billion, with a 24% contraction.

Building materials and metals, with deep decline from Kurum

"Construction materials and metals" were the group with the strongest decline in November as well. This group is affected by the performance of Kurum, the steel processor, which is one of the largest exporters in the country.

In November, this group plunged by 43%, continuing the strong contraction for the second month in a row. For the 11th month, the sector is down by 15%. In August, Kurum announced that it had ceased operations due to the unfavorable price situation.

Food, drinks and tobacco mark the best performance of the year

"Food, beverages and tobacco" recorded a strong increase in November, with almost 18%, ranking in the second largest export group in the country, after that of textiles and shoes. For the 11th month, this group has decreased by -5%.

Exporters claim that exported quantities continue to be high, while the decline of previous months was mainly related to low prices.

Machinery, equipment, spare parts with growth

"Machinery, equipment, spare parts" was another group that showed good performance in recent years, as a result of the entry of factories that assembled parts for the automotive industry.

But this group is also suffering from the devaluation of the euro, rising costs and labor shortages. However, in November, the group returned to strong growth, expanding by 15%.

For the 11th month, the group has shrunk by about 4%. Representatives of automotive companies that produce simple models in our country claim that there is a decrease in demand or sales due to the general situation in the automobile market in Europe.

According to them, large European companies such as Stellantis, Renault Group, Volkswagen have reflected a drop in demand. Another factor is the increase in supply and competition from electric cars of Chinese brands.

The tertiary deficit follows the deepening

According to INSTAT, in November 2024 exports of goods reached the value of 30 billion ALL, decreasing by -8.5%, compared to the same period a year ago and decreasing by -2.8%, compared to October 2024.

Imports of goods reached the value of 73 billion ALL, increasing by 2.0%, compared to a year ago

before and decreasing by -5.0%, compared to October 2024. This month's trade deficit is 43 billion ALL, increasing by 10.9%, compared to November 2023 and decreasing by -6, 5%, compared to October 2024.

In this eleven-month period, exports of goods reached the value of 347 billion ALL, decreasing by -13.9% compared to the previous year, while imports of goods reached the value of 816 billion ALL, increasing by 2.0%, compared to a year ago. The trade deficit reached the value of 469 billion ALL, increasing by 18.0%, compared to the same period of 2023./ Monitor magazine