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Trump wins and leaves?/ The dangerous game in the Middle East

2026-03-22 13:59:00, Blog CNA

Donald Trump announces that he has "wiped Iran off the map" and, in a controversy with the New York Times, that he has "achieved all his objectives."

And he adds: Tehran “wants a deal, I don’t.” The American president published this message on his social platform “Truth” last night at dinner, essentially confirming what he had written in a post on Friday evening: the end of the conflict is near.

In the first post, Trump lists five points. In order: the complete destruction of the missile “launch capabilities”; the destruction of the military “industrial base”; the elimination of the enemy navy and aviation; the elimination of the possibility of enriching uranium to build an atomic bomb; the protection “at the highest level” of allies in the Middle East, “including Israel, Saudi Arabia, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Kuwait and others.”

Finally, perhaps the most worrying passage comes. Trump announces that the Americans intend to withdraw as soon as possible, leaving to "other countries" the task of guaranteeing navigation in the Strait of Hormuz, the seaway through which one-fifth of the world's oil needs pass.

Trump: Strait of Hormuz should be guarded by those who use it

And he accompanies this with a poignant note: "The strait should be guarded by the countries that use it, not by the United States. If they ask us, we can help these countries, but since we have eradicated the Iranian threat, it should not be a difficult military operation for them."

In recent weeks, Trump's swings have been dizzying. Does he really intend to end the war now? This is the question that dominated the seminar organized over the weekend by the Aspen Institute Italia in Venice. Among the speakers was Victoria Coates, former deputy national security adviser during Trump's first term and now one of the leading figures at the Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank among the closest to the administration.

Coates connects Trump's words to the needs of domestic politics: "There are nine months left until the midterm elections. The question of whether this war will be considered a success or not, as well as the topic of energy prices, will dominate the minds of voters. So I take seriously Trump's statements when he says that it will be a matter of weeks, not months. I think that within a short time the administration will be able to show that it has indeed achieved its military objectives."

Trump faces a crucial choice

In fact, the American president is faced with a crucial choice: either follow Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's maximalist plan to destroy the theocratic regime, or adapt to coexisting with it. Pentagon generals have made it clear that to overthrow the ayatollahs would require a ground invasion, involving hundreds of thousands of soldiers and at an incredible cost: at least $200 billion for the first hundred days alone.

In practice, this would mean huge losses, a steady stream of dead bodies draped in the Stars and Stripes; a devastating energy crisis; a conflict with an uncertain outcome. Probably even worse than in Afghanistan and Iraq.

But that is not enough. Trump claims to have defended his Gulf partners “at the highest level.” However, the United Arab Emirates, Qatar, and others have become easy targets for Iranian retaliation. The rulers of these states are realizing that American soldiers will not die for Dubai or Doha. And so, a way out is urgently needed. The most feasible one seems to be the one Trump has indicated in his announcement.

But the American president wants to withdraw as a "winner". Therefore, someone needs to be assigned the most difficult task: ensuring safe navigation in the Strait of Hormuz. And who better than European and Asian partners? / corriere della sera – bota.al