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US military analyst: Russia does not have a good strategy to win the war

2023-09-22 08:05:00, Blog Thore Schröder

Since the start of the war, American military analyst Michael Kofman, 41, has visited Ukraine several times. Kofman was born in Ukraine and immigrated to the United States with his family in 1991. He is the director of the Russian Studies Program at the Center for Naval Analyzes (CNA), a research institution funded by the US government.

In May, shortly before the start of the Ukrainian counteroffensive, Kofman warned of the great challenges that the massive Russian defense fortifications in the southeast of the country would create. In an interview for "Der Spiegel", he calls on the West to draw up a long-term strategy for supporting Ukraine.

How is it going and what will happen with the Ukrainian counteroffensive?

It seems to me that it is entering its most decisive phase. Currently, both the Ukrainian reserves and the Russian strategic reserves have all been thrown onto the battlefield. Therefore, it will depend on which side is better able to manage its own forces while conserving troops and ammunition.

Will the Ukrainians manage to break through all three Russian defensive lines in the coming weeks?

For now, Ukrainian forces are making steady progress. There is much debate over the potential impact of weather on the fall season. The aim of this offensive is not only to penetrate the Russian defensive lines, but to impose a decisive defeat on Russia, liberating a significant part of the territory.

US military analyst: Russia does not have a good strategy to win the war

What do you mean by the latter?

I don't know how the Ukrainian government and Western countries will evaluate it. But the initial goals of the offensive appear to have been to liberate Melitopol, disrupt the Russian land lines of communication running near the coastline, and reach the shores of the Sea of ??Azov. But these are maximalist goals.

How likely are the initial goals to be achieved?

I think there is a real possibility that Ukrainian forces will break through the Russian lines. Of course, the dynamic has changed somewhat in the last 2 weeks. And military operations can also proceed non-linearly. If the Russian army is exhausted and no more troops are available, this could put Russian forces in a precarious position.

Recently, some American officials have expressed criticism of the way the Ukrainians are fighting. They say that the Ukrainians are spreading their forces across many parts of the front, and are fighting in small groups of infantry, rather than using larger motorized units...

Much of the criticism stems from a lack of understanding of how Ukrainian forces operate or of battlefield conditions. The situation on the ground does not allow an effective gathering of forces.

US military analyst: Russia does not have a good strategy to win the war

What do Ukrainians lack today?

Pajisjet për depërtimin e shpejtë në zonat e minuara. Po ashtu, ka mungesa në mbrojtjen ajrore me rreze të shkurtër, dhe kjo i ka bërë trupat ukrainase shumë të brishta ndaj sulmeve të helikopterëve ushtarakë rusë. Nga ana tjetër kjo ofensivë nuk ka vuajtur nga mungesa e mjeteve të blinduara luftarake apo tankeve. Problemet ishin më shumë në aspektin e teknologjisë ndihmëse dhe më e rëndësishmja në atë të trajnimit.

Siç e pamë, trajnimi ishte i pamjaftueshëm, duke pasur parasysh edhe kohën në dispozicion.

Në SHBA po diskutohet nëse do të dërgohen apo jo në Ukrainë raketat me rreze të gjatë ATACMS. Ndërkohë, politikanët gjermanë po debatojnë nëse do të ofrojnë raketat Taurus. Sa të rëndësishme mund të jenë ato për javët e mbetura të ofensivës?

Do të ishte një zhvillim pozitiv, por them se do të ishte mirë që këto armë të ishin dërguar që në maj apo qershor. Për më tepër, ka rëndësi se cili version i ATACMS do të dërgohet.

US military analyst: Russia does not have a good strategy to win the war

Si do të vazhdojë kjo luftë pasi të përfundojë ofensiva?

Mendoj se të hyjmë në një periudhë të zgjatur të rënies së intensitetit të luftimeve gjatë vjeshtës dhe dimrit, në të cilën të dyja palët do të konsolidojnë pozicionet e tyre, duke u përpjekur t’i bëjnë presion kundërshtarit të tyre. Ndoshta do të kemi një situatë të ngjashme me atë që ishte situata gjatë dimrit të kaluar.

Cila është strategjia e Rusisë në këtë fazë të luftës?

To prolong the war as much as possible and make it more costly. Next year, they will try to focus on destroying Ukraine's viability as a state. They hope they can slowly drain the political will of the West. But Russia does not have a good strategy to win the war.

US military analyst: Russia does not have a good strategy to win the war

Its forces lack offensive potential. The possibility of conquering more Ukrainian territory is very small, even to achieve the most minimal goals of the war to conquer Donbass. But the Russian leadership has not given up its goal of destroying Ukraine. And for this it will spend a lot of resources.

Taken with cuts