Nathalie Tocci on Ditmir Bushati's Podcast: EU enlargement is a strategic emergency

2023-09-08 18:12:00, Aktualitet CNA

Nathalie Tocci on Ditmir Bushati's Podcast: EU enlargement is a strategic

The director of the Italian Institute for International Affairs and the special adviser of the High Representatives for Foreign Policy and Security Affairs of the EU Mogherini and Borell in Ditmir Bushati's podcast "Public Square" considers the enlargement of the EU "a strategic emergency" that should be put back on the agenda". Bushati and Tocci talk about Russian aggression in Ukraine, the new European security architecture and the impact on the Western Balkans integration process in the EU.

According to Nathalie Tocci, " this war has made us aware of the terrible reality of the construction of the European security architecture, not because of the will of Europe, but because of the will of Russia. Building the European security architecture against Russia. Because this Russia is a threat" .

Ditmir Bushati and Nathalie Tocci share the opinion that with the outbreak of war in Europe, the issue of EU expansion as a strategic emergency is back on the agenda.

"There are no more options for states in the intermediate zone. Either you're on one side or the other. The expansion process is considered an emergency. Of course, already driven mainly by Ukraine, but since Ukraine's train is not only Moldova, potentially Georgia, but also the issue of the Western Balkans returns. Let's be honest, the EU membership negotiations of Albania and North Macedonia would probably be frozen if the war in Ukraine did not break out. Bosnia-Herzegovina's EU candidate status would probably be completely frozen, were it not for the war in Ukraine. This does not mean that the expansion will necessarily happen, but simply that the momentum of expansion has returned. The point really is how we who really believe in the expansion process, since we both belong to this category,", emphasizes Tocci.

The director of the Italian Institute for International Affairs believes that the crises that will come in the following months and year will continue to reaffirm the fact that the EU should increasingly have a global dimension.

According to her, " the developments from the pandemic to the war show that there is no drawbridge that Europe can raise and keep the rest of the world out of."

Speaking about the narration of a global Europe and the preparation of the countries of the Western Balkans in this project, Ditmir Bushati and Nathalie Tocci share the view that green history is fundamentally important for Europe.

" I think it's fundamentally important for a number of reasons. First, it's going to happen, and it has to happen, or we're all going to be baked, really. Second, as the US is also teaching us, this is a growth story. Europe does not need to be identified with rules and restrictions, but with its productive and innovative potential. So green history is normative, it is economic. It's about reconnecting, with the priorities of younger generations. In this sense, it is about a political and certainly strategic Europe for reasons that really have to do with dependence on Russian gas, but not only. It is also about how to avoid new dependencies on critical minerals vis-à-vis China and how the EU positions itself in the growing competition between the US and China," Tocci points out .

Ditmir Bushati and Nathalie Tocci also analyze the scenarios and opportunities presented by the upcoming elections in the USA, the United Kingdom and the European Parliament.

"I think the UK case presents fewer risks. It seems to me that the time of Johnson-style populism, Brexit populism is over. In the worst case scenario we will have the Conservatives, in their current Sunak-type genetic mutation. In the most likely and positive scenario, we will have a change of government. Then we have the US and that is potentially a dire scenario. However, even if it is not a terrible scenario, and of course by terrible scenario I mean the scenario where the winner is Trump, even if it is a Biden 2 scenario, I think this should give us cause to think, reflect and then accelerate the start of work. Joe Biden will be the last Atlanticist president of the United States. Then we come to the European Parliament elections. There is a scenario I worry less about and a scenario I worry more about. The scenario I worry about the least, which is being talked about a lot in Italy, is the scenario where a new majority in the European Parliament results, consisting of the EPP (European People's Parties) and the ECR (conservative and reformist parties). I think there will be a traditional majority in the European Parliament. Next is what I really worry about. I think that in this traditional majority in the European Parliament, the green component will weaken even more" I think there will be a traditional majority in the European Parliament. Next is what I really worry about. I think that in this traditional majority in the European Parliament, the green component will weaken even more" I think there will be a traditional majority in the European Parliament. Next is what I really worry about. I think that in this traditional majority in the European Parliament, the green component will weaken even more", says Nathalie Tocci.

Nathalie Tocci is Director of the Italian Institute for International Affairs. Researcher and professor at several prestigious universities in the USA and Europe. Special Adviser to the High Representatives for Foreign Policy and Security Affairs of the EU, Mogherini and Borell. Author of the EU Global Strategy. Regular contributor to the media and one of the most influential voices in Europe.