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Scientists: 2 scenarios for Antarctica, what could happen from global warming?

2026-02-26 07:28:00, Kuriozitete CNA

Scientists: 2 scenarios for Antarctica, what could happen from global warming?

Scientists have modeled what could happen to Antarctica under different global warming scenarios, distinguishing between the best-case and worst-case scenarios. They point out that changes occurring there will not only affect the continent, but will have global consequences through rising sea levels, changes in ocean and atmospheric circulation, and impacts on global ecosystems.

Worst case scenario:

If greenhouse gas emissions increase too much (more than 4 °C below pre-industrial levels by 2100), the Southern Ocean will warm more rapidly, destroying land and ocean ice.

This increase in temperatures could lead to an escalation of ice loss and the collapse of ice shelves, accelerating sea level rise. Sea level rise is linked to more coastal flooding and shoreline erosion, with every centimeter of rise exposing an estimated 6 million people to sea level flooding.

Under this scenario, sea ice extent could decline by up to 20%, endangering species such as krill (essential food for seals and penguins). Further damage to ecosystems and an increase in extreme events are expected due to warming.

Good scenario:

If emissions are reduced too much and warming remains low (around +1.8 °C), ice loss trends will continue, but much slower and with much more limited impact.

In this case, seasonal winter ice would only fade slightly and sea level rise would be only a few millimeters. Most glaciers would remain recognizable and the ice structure would remain in place.

Even under the “best case” scenario, some changes will occur, but they may be much less damaging than under the worst case scenario. According to experts, the changes caused by the high emissions scenario could be permanent in any human time frame, making it very difficult to restore the glaciers or recreate the biodiversity that characterizes the continent today./ CNA

 

 





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