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14:51 POLITICS

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Steve Rosenberg: Assad's fall is a blow to Russia's prestige

2024-12-08 18:10:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

It was Russian firepower that had helped keep Bashar al-Assad in power for the past nine years.

But within days, the Kremlin's project on Syria has unraveled, with Moscow seemingly powerless to do anything about it.

In a statement, the Russian foreign ministry announced that Assad had left the presidency - and the country (without giving any details on where he had gone).

He added that Moscow was "following the dramatic events in Syria with extreme concern." The fall of the Assad regime is a blow to Russia's prestige.

By sending thousands of troops to support President Assad in 2015, one of Russia's main objectives had been to assert itself as a global power. It was Vladimir Putin's first major challenge to Western power and dominance away from the former Soviet space.

And a successful one, too, it seemed. In 2017, President Putin visited the Russian Hmeimim air base in Syria and declared the mission accomplished. Despite widespread reports that Russian airstrikes were causing civilian casualties, the Russian defense ministry felt confident enough to fly international media to Syria to witness the Russian military operation.

On one such trip I remember an officer telling me that Russia was in Syria "for a long time."

But this was about more than just prestige.

In exchange for military aid, the Syrian authorities granted Russia a 49-year lease for the Hmeimim air base and its Tartus naval base. Russia had secured an important foothold in the Eastern Mediterranean. The bases became hubs for the transfer of military contractors in and out of Africa.

A key question for Moscow is: what will happen to these Russian bases now? In its statement, the Russian Foreign Ministry announced that its bases in Syria had been put on "high alert" but claimed there was "no serious threat to them at the moment".

Assad was Russia's staunchest ally in the Middle East. The Kremlin had invested heavily in it. It had poured resources - financial, military, political - into keeping him in power. Russian authorities will struggle to portray his overthrow as anything other than a setback for Moscow.

But in a post on social media, Konstantin Kosachev, the deputy speaker of the upper house of the Russian parliament, wrote: “What is happening in Syria is very difficult for everyone, without exception…a tragedy for everyone.

"For the Russians, our priority is to guarantee the safety of our citizens, as civilians, including diplomats and their families, and of course the military"./ CNA