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How Orban benefits from Hungary's tailored electoral system

2026-04-10 12:10:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

At first glance, the results of Hungary’s parliamentary elections on April 12 seem to be over and done with. Outgoing Prime Minister Viktor Orban looks set to lose. He is teetering in the polls, trailing MEP and Tisza Party leader Peter Magyar, who launched his anti-establishment movement in the spring of 2024.

But although the populist and nationalist leader, who has governed Hungary unchallenged for the past 16 years, may appear to be suffering, he also has a number of assets in his hands.

The first of these is a mixed electoral system tailored to benefit his far-right Fidesz party. In 2011, backed by a two-thirds majority, Orban pushed through a controversial law that reduced the number of seats in parliament and redrew electoral districts designed to maximize the conservative party’s chances.

In fact, the majority of Hungary's parliamentary seats are determined in these local elections. Of the 199 vacant seats, 106 deputies are elected in single-member constituencies using the majority system. The remaining 93 seats are elected by proportional representation based on national party lists.

Even if Magyar wins in the main cities and gets more votes nationally, Orbán could still win in the countryside, his rural base and heartland, where most of the constituencies are concentrated.

Furthermore, Hungary’s electoral reforms also introduced winner-take-all voting, a mechanism that enabled Orbán to win a comfortable two-thirds majority in the last three elections. Thus, in 2022, Fidesz won 135 out of 199 seats with just 54% of the vote.

Orbán also controls, directly or indirectly, most of the country's media. State media is largely a government mouthpiece, while hundreds of private media outlets are controlled by Orbán's inner circle, leaving his opponents with little airtime. Most of the country's independent media have been stifled.

His vast propaganda machine would not hesitate to use public funds to finance his campaign, especially by financing billboards with taxpayer money.

In the run-up to the vote, voters may also be mobilized by the government's powerful patronage networks, led by allies of the Fidesz party.

As he faces the battle of his political life, it remains to be seen whether these levers, the tailored electoral system, media control and patronage networks, will be enough to keep Orban in power./France 24