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The US and Europe fear a new refugee crisis

2023-05-11 08:22:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Diplomats making Western foreign policies are deeply concerned about Russia and China. But the international issue that most worries their political superiors is immigration.

As a close aide of US President Joe Biden says: "If we lose the next election, it will happen because of the migrant crisis on our southern border and not because of supporting Ukraine."

The political pressure caused by illegal immigration will only increase this week in the US due to the expiration of Title 42, the pandemic-era policy that enabled the swift deportation of undocumented immigrants on public health grounds.

US officials are prepared for the entry of up to 13,000 illegal immigrants each day, more than double the current number. To show its determination against this phenomenon, the White House is sending troops to the border. But Biden is also preparing for a political blow that could come from Republicans.

On the other hand, the issue of refugees and immigrants has turned into a delicate argument in Europe as well. Italy's Prime Minister, Giorgia Meloni, promised during last year's campaign to curb the arrival of migrants through the Mediterranean Sea. But the numbers of immigrants currently landing in Italy are 3 times higher than the same period last year. Nearly 40,000 people have arrived in Italy since the start of this year, and the numbers will only increase as the weather warms and the sea calms.

As in the US, the end of legal restrictions due to the pandemic is playing a large role in increasing the flow of immigrants. In Britain, the promise to "stop the boats" of refugees crossing the Channel is one of the 5 main promises of the Sunak government for this year.

Sure the numbers may be small compared to those in the US, with 45,000 arriving in Britain last year, but they still grab the headlines. War, social collapse and poverty are the main factors driving refugee flows.

But bitter experience in countries such as Libya, Lebanon, Mali and Afghanistan has made Western countries increasingly wary of committing troops to try to stabilize failing states. No one is likely to suggest foreign intervention in Sudan, as civil war has once again engulfed the African country.

The reality is that most refugees from countries such as Sudan, Syria, Venezuela or Myanmar are likely to end up in neighboring countries rather than the US or the EU. And the arrival of millions of refugees fleeing war or economic collapse can destabilize the host country.

The pressure to "do something" is great; and so is the lack of realistic solutions. Safe and legal routes for migration are clearly desirable. But the number of potential immigrants is always likely to exceed the number of visas available.

Governments of all stripes try to reach agreements with countries that agree to act as unofficial holders of refugees such as Turkey, Mexico or Libya. But in doing so, they increase the burden on those countries and give great political leverage to leaders they are often uncomfortable with, such as Turkey's Recep Tayyip Erdogan.

But there is little evidence that more punitive solutions work better. Donald Trump was much more successful in reducing legal immigration than illegal immigration. Hard-line policies in Australia have inspired the UK government to do the same.

But expelling illegal immigrants from Australia depended on the cooperation of much weaker neighbors such as Papua, New Guinea and Nauru. Meanwhile, France will not be so welcoming to the immigrants Britain intends to deport.

When a country succeeds in implementing tough policies on refugees, it often succeeds only in displacing the problem. The violent expulsion of refugees from Hungary in 2015 was part of the reason that convinced Germany to open its borders. A visit to France by Italy's foreign minister has just been canceled after a bitter clash between the two countries over immigration.

But instead of fighting, countries should cooperate even more. For them to have any chance of doing so, cooperation must involve countries of origin, countries of transit and countries of destination. Meanwhile, there is a need for a mix of liberal and conservative measures.

Law enforcement and intelligence services have an important role to play in addressing the problem of human traffickers. And while talking about development doesn't really help anyone, targeted projects can work.

The Vice President of the USA, Kamala Harris, is often accused of failing to solve the problem on America's southern border. But it has helped create some unheralded public-private partnerships that have led to billions of dollars in investment in Central America, giving some would-be immigrants a reason not to leave home.

Reducing the number of refugees in a humane and effective way requires a difficult combination of diplomacy, law enforcement and targeted development. Deportations and walls make better headlines for the media, but create worse policies./ Adapted from CNA.al