Challenges for the election of the new NATO secretary

2023-05-26 22:46:02, Kosova & Bota CNA

The race for the new NATO leader is intensifying. But it is largely taking place behind the scenes, with no sign of a clear winner.

The Secretary General of NATO, the Norwegian Jens Stoltenberg, will resign at the end of September, after nine years in this post.

Many members of the alliance would like a decision on his successor to be made during, or before, the NATO meeting in Lithuania in mid-July.

This does not give NATO's 31 countries much time to build the consensus needed to elect a new leader. They may also ask Mr Stoltenberg to extend his term for a fourth term.

The incoming leader will take over the leadership of the alliance at a critical time, facing the challenges of maintaining the unity of the allies in support of Ukraine and avoiding an escalation of the situation that would lead NATO to a direct war with Russia .

British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace said last week that he would like to take the post. But with several governments seeking to appoint the first woman to the post, Danish Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen has become a stronger contender for the post.

Challenges for the election of the new NATO secretary

Ben Wallace

Although a very public role, the race is extremely secretive and based largely on consultations between NATO member country leaders and diplomats. Consultations will continue until all NATO members agree on a candidate for the post.

Jamie Shea, a former senior NATO official who served in Brussels for 38 years, said leaders will be looking for a politician with strong communication skills and a highly skilled diplomat.

"Maintaining unity and communicating with all allies is very important to get the job done," says Mr. Shea, who now works at Chatham House.

WALLACE AND FREDERIKSEN

Many diplomats see Britain's Wallace as a tough choice for the job, although he is widely respected across the alliance. The desire of some member states to elect a woman to this post reduces his chances.

Many NATO members would prefer a former prime minister or former president for this post so that the NATO chief has high-level political influence. Stoltenberg, 64, has been prime minister of Norway.

Several other countries, notably France, want someone from a European Union country, hoping for closer cooperation between NATO and the EU.

Danish Prime Minister Frederiksen meets all the above criteria. Although she says that she is not a candidate, she has not said that she is not interested in this post. NATO diplomats say that behind the scenes she is being considered as a serious candidate.

Ms Frederiksen's name first appeared in a report by the Norwegian newspaper 'VG' last month and caused a flurry of media interest again this week when the White House announced she would meet with President Joe Biden in early June.

"I am not applying for any post," she told reporters in Copenhagen on Wednesday, playing down speculation that the visit could be a job interview for the NATO leadership post.

While a European is traditionally chosen for this position, any serious candidate needs the support of Washington, the most powerful member of NATO.

A source with knowledge of the discussions on the issue in Washington said that President Biden's administration does not yet have a preferred candidate and that there is a "vigorous debate" about it among senior White House advisers.

A State Department spokesman said it was "too early to speculate on who the United States will support."

Social Democrat Frederiksen, 45, became Denmark's youngest prime minister in 2019. She was praised for her handling of the COVID-19 pandemic crisis and won a second term last year.

Mette Frederiksen

She would have to give up her post as prime minister if she accepted the role of NATO Secretary General, a move political analysts say would bring her fragile government to the brink of collapse.

And the campaign for the post of NATO leader would not be easy for the Danish prime minister.

Her country is far from the NATO target of spending 2 percent of GDP on defense. Denmark is now at 1.38 percent, although Frederiksen has pledged to intensify efforts to meet NATO's annual defense spending target.

Some allies also argue that for the first time a candidate from Eastern European countries should be elected to the post, especially since Russia's war in Ukraine has made that region even more important to NATO.

If Ms Frederiksen were to take the post, she would be the third consecutive NATO leader from a Nordic country.

OTHER POSSIBILITIES

Estonian Prime Minister Kaja Kallas, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen of Germany and Canadian Deputy Prime Minister Chrystia Freeland have also been mentioned in discussions among diplomats and in media reports as possible candidates for NATO leadership.

But diplomats say Prime Minister Kallas is seen by some NATO members as too tough on Russia and Berlin wants von der Leyen to stay on as European Commission President, and Canada's Freeland would face strong opposition. because she is not European and comes from a country that is considered to have stalled in defense spending.

Other names frequently mentioned are Dutch Prime Minister Mark Rutte and Spanish Prime Minister Pedro Sanchez.

But Mr Rutte has insisted he does not want the post, while Mr Sanchez faces a general election in his country later this year.

Some diplomats are also worried that many of the candidates mentioned may be unacceptable to Turkish President Tayyip Erdogan, who is expected to win Sunday's runoff and has shown no sign of budging on the deadlock on consensus within NATO.

Turkey, along with Hungary, are blocking Sweden's NATO membership.

The lack of candidates with broad support raises the possibility that Mr Stoltenberg's term will be extended again, possibly until another NATO meeting in 2024.

Mr. Stoltenberg has said that he is not looking to stay longer in the post of NATO chief. But he did not say how he would respond if asked for such a thing./ VOA