Putin is expected to run again as President of Russia/ If not, who would replace him?

2023-11-02 19:28:04, Kosova & Bota CNA

Putin is expected to run again as President of Russia/ If not, who would replace

Vladimir Putin is no longer the first. It has been more than a decade since the Russian president appeared in public to demonstrate his vitality, hugging a polar bear, or riding shirtless through the mountains. The image of the strong man has been further damaged by the war in Ukraine.

Mr. Putin is expected to seek another term when Russia holds presidential elections in March. He has even enabled changes to the constitution that allow him to run for two more six-year terms.

But 71 is an age when serious illness or death no longer sounds so far-fetched for the man who has ruled Russia for 24 years. If for some reason Mr. Putin would no longer appear as a candidate on the ballot, it is not clear who would replace him.

Putin is expected to run again as President of Russia/ If not, who would replace

At the national level, Russia's political system is hermetic. There are no primaries, where voters can select a candidate; political parties select their own competitors and then present them to the electorate.

In Mr. Putin's absence, the United Russia Party could present another candidate, but there is no clear procedure for selecting him. Officially, Mr. Putin ran in 2018 as an independent, thus creating a precedent that increases the uncertainty of how his replacement could be done.

However things play out, the candidate would almost certainly emerge from the current power structure, as none of the candidates from the other smaller parties would gain widespread recognition or support.

But who would be the possible contenders, if Mr. Putin did not run?

DMITRY MEDVEDEV

Mr. Medvedev has a unique experience as a substitute for Mr. Putin. He became president in 2008 when Mr Putin could not run again due to term limits. Despite the high post, he was widely perceived as second only to Mr. Putin, who became prime minister and continued to effectively run the country.

Mr. Medvedev yielded to Mr. Putin's wish for a new term in 2012, serving as prime minister until 2020. He was then appointed to the new post of deputy chairman of the national security council.

Putin is expected to run again as President of Russia/ If not, who would replace

Although the post has little visibility and is widely seen as a privilege, Mr. Medvedev's stature grew greatly last year, when he shed his normally soft-spoken persona and became one of Ukraine's most passionate defenders of the war, attacking vividly the West.

That kind of stance is welcomed by Russian nationalists, but Mr. Medvedev's candidacy could be hurt by the perception that he overstayed his welcome when he chaired former President Obama's administration's initiative for a "fresh start" in the relationship, as well as exposure to public accusations against him for corruption and a luxurious lifestyle.

ALEXEY DYUMIN

As governor of the Tula region, Dyumin does not have much public visibility, but he has been considered for years as a possible successor to Mr. Putin because of his close relationship with the president, whom he even served as a bodyguard.

Mr. Dyumin came into the public eye when he made the dramatic claim that he had once saved Mr. Putin from a bear. According to Mr. Dyumin's account, he was in a mountain cottage, where Mr. Putin was sleeping, when he was informed that a bear was found at the door.

Putin is expected to run again as President of Russia/ If not, who would replace

"The bear and I saw eye to eye. He backed away a little, I opened the door and emptied the entire pistol magazine at his feet," he said.

Mr. Dyumin led the special forces of the military's intelligence agency during Russia's annexation of Crimea in 2014, thus gaining a shadow of bravery and success in relation to Ukraine, in contrast to the difficulties and failures of the current war.

SERGEI SOBYANIN

If visuals mattered in the Russian presidential election, Mr. Sobyanin might have the strongest credentials of all. During his tenure as mayor of Moscow since 2010, the Russian capital has undergone notable and impressive changes.

New recreation areas, pedestrian areas, sports facilities and others have flourished. Electric buses replaced old streetcars, new lines for passenger rail transport eased heavy traffic, and once dilapidated parks were resettled and improved.

Putin is expected to run again as President of Russia/ If not, who would replace

Mr. Sobyanin offended pro-Western liberals by banning city parades of the LGBTQ+ community, but tolerance of gay rights does not offer a winning position in Russia. Mr. Sobyanin has also avoided the divisive and declamatory tendencies of his predecessor, Yuri Luzhkov.

MIKHAIL MISHUSTIN

Prime Minister of Russia from 2020, Mr. Mishustin has not aroused enthusiasm and has fallen into the limelight. But he has a potentially significant advantage: if Mr. Putin were to die, or be found unable to fulfill his role before the election, then Mr. Mishustin would become acting president. This is what Mr. Putin followed when he became acting president after the resignation of Boris Yeltsin on New Year's Eve 1999, continuing to use this position to win the elections.

Putin is expected to run again as President of Russia/ If not, who would replace

However, Mr. Mishustin does not seem to have such an ambition. He is a quiet technocrat who was considered very capable in his previous post in charge of taxation. As prime minister, he has received a level of popular support of 70% in surveys, for the direction he has given to the administration and ministries.

Although many observers believe he was caught off guard by Mr. Putin's decision to invade Ukraine, Mr. Mishustin has quietly continued to fulfill his duties.

NIKOLAI PATRUSHEV

The similarities between Mr. Putin and Mr. Patrushev are uncanny. Both were born in Leningrad, 10 months apart, and Mr. Patrushev became head of the Federal Security Service, the main agency that succeeded the KGB, in 1999 when Mr. Putin became prime minister. Now head of the national security council, he echoes and sometimes reinforces Mr Putin's strong views and hostility to the West.

Putin is expected to run again as President of Russia/ If not, who would replace

Mr. Patrushev first raised doubts about the recognition of independence by rebel leaders in Ukraine's separatist regions of Donetsk and Luhansk, just days before the attack by Russian forces. However, he later became a staunch supporter of the war, saying that Russia should eliminate "neo-Nazis" on its doorstep, as he put it, and claiming that Ukraine and its Western orientation were a clear danger. for safety.

He also denounced the insidious introduction, as he called them, of Western neo-liberal ideas in Russia and defended the preservation of the country's traditions, a philosophical position identical to that of Mr. Putin./ VOA