Erdogan's "last" promise

2024-03-16 08:28:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

"I am working with all my strength because this is the final for me, by law these elections will be the last." This sentence of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan caused a storm in the West, news agencies reported: "Erdogan is thinking about leaving" or "Erdogan announces withdrawal". However, in Turkey he is waiting with derision. "He is giving up again", wrote users of many, speculating on social networks how many times he predicted his departure: two, three or more times?

According to Dr. According to Hakki Tas, a political scientist at the German Institute for Global and Area Studies (GIGA), people are rightly skeptical because they have already heard similar statements from Erdogan. "He spoke about his last election in 2009. In 2012 he said he would stand for the last time at the head of the party, in 2023 he promised to ask for the support of the voters for the last time and then handed over the baton to the new generation," recalls Tas. Now, says Tas, we hear the same statements that the next local elections will be his last.

At the same time, Erdogan implemented his goals after each election and expanded his powers after each victory. There are more powers today than ever before. He is the first head of state, under whose authority is the government. He is also the chairman of the AKP party.

This is why Tas believes that Erdogan's statement is more of a tactical move. He uses the emotional connection of his voters and once again asks for their trust to mobilize them.

In power for 22 years

Erdogan, who is known as an Islamic-conservative politician, has been in power for 22 years. First as prime minister, and then from 2014 as president. However, the upcoming local elections on March 31 are very important to him. In the last ten years, the country has experienced so many referendums, parliamentary elections, local elections and presidential elections - politics, society and the economy were constantly in election campaign mode.

After the local elections, which are held at the end of March, initially the situation will be calmer. If early parliamentary or presidential elections are not called, Erdogan will rule for another four years. Bolstered by the victory in the local elections, he will want to expand his power even further, perhaps change the constitution and think about his successor. For this, he especially needs economically strong metropolises such as Istanbul, Ankara, Izmir and Antalya, because they account for almost half of the country's economic output.

In the first row stands the metropolis of 17 million Istanbul. Polls there predict there will be a fight for every vote. Since 2019, the city has been in the hands of the main opposition CHP party. Mayor Ekrem Imamoglu wants to be re-elected. The 52-year-old is known throughout Turkey and has had a successful election campaign so far.

Murat Kurum, the candidate of the ruling AKP party, on the other hand, has not brought any real momentum to the election campaign and has so far proven to be an unemotional and pale figure. Although he has been Minister of Environment, Urbanism and Climate for five years, he is relatively unknown. Since the introduction of the presidential system, citizens do not even know the names of the members of the government, because only Erdogan is always in the foreground.

Erdogan's candidate, Turgut Altinok, has yet to win a race in the capital, Ankara. Despite the harsh nationalist-religious slogans, he did not score many points. Polls show incumbent Mansur Yavas of the opposition CHP party with a narrow lead.

Thus, Erdogan once again felt that it was his duty to involve himself in the election campaign. For days, the 70-year-old moved from one big event to another, giving speeches and cheering as if he were on the ballot himself.

He is aware of the role Istanbul plays in the country's politics. His career also started in Istanbul. Erdogan was mayor there from 1994-1998. Istanbul is economically strong. It is not for nothing that they say in Turkey: "Who wins in Istanbul, wins in the country".

Especially since the metropolises are essentially important sources of income for Erdogan to stay in power. After the change of government in many municipal councils in 2019, it came to light that the AKP had been employing cadres close to the party in the city administrations for years. Many large orders for entrepreneurs loyal to the party also went from there. They also granted privileges to nationalist and Islamic brotherhoods.

Tas believes that a victory in the upcoming elections would boost the self-confidence of the ruling party. The government, he says, will interpret any victory as support for its political line and will continue with an even tougher course.

Who can be Erdogan's successor?

Although many do not really believe that Erdogan can actually step down now, there has been a lot of talk recently about a possible successor. Erdogan recently turned 70 years old. Recently, photos and recordings of poor health are appearing more and more often.

In this case, who will come to Erdogan's chair? After the failure of his elder son-in-law Berat Albayrak as finance minister, many assumed he would support either his son Bilal Erdogan or his younger son-in-law, arms manufacturer Selcuk Bayraktar, as his successor.

Will these potential candidates be able to continue to lead the party as successfully as Erdogan? "Basically, there is no longer a party that develops policies and mobilizes people," answers scientist Hakki Tas. In fact, since the introduction of the presidential system, there is only Erdogan.

Turkish journalist Ragip Soylu believes that many things can happen before the next presidential election. On the platform, X he wrote that 2028 is far away. Until then, Erdogan may change his mind several times or even try to change the constitution, he wrote.

The fact is that AKP is working to give Erdogan another mandate. He currently lacks almost 40 votes for changing the constitution or for early elections. It is currently uncertain whether Erdogan can make any of the opposition parties his own for his purposes./DW