Historian Jonathan Little: Why the War in Ukraine Will Bring the End of Vladimir Putin

2023-10-05 19:09:00, Kosova & Bota Enrico Franceschini

Historian Jonathan Little: Why the War in Ukraine Will Bring the End of Vladimir

"After becoming president thanks to a war, when he implemented the 'scorched earth' scheme in Chechnya, maybe now Vladimir Putin will lose power because of another war, where he used the same tactics, but with less good results for to". This is what Jonathan Little, the author of the bestselling book on the theme of the Second World War "Kindness", where the events are narrated from the point of view of a former Nazi officer, hopes.

His newest book, "Russian Aggression", deals with the new conflict in the heart of Europe, the brutal invasion of Ukraine. After spending a long time in Moscow and Kiev, the 55-year-old French-American writer has written a book that cuts to the heart of the matter: an excellent lecture that should be recommended to pro-Russians, those who oppose military aid to Kiev in in the name of pacifism, the members of the party "neither with Putin nor with Zelensky", to understand that, just like before Hitler, in this war those who love freedom can only line up on one side.

Is a certain weariness felt in the West after a year and a half of war?

Yes, but in Ukraine a greater fatigue is felt. I just came back from Kiev. Its people are tired of fighting, and everyone would like the war to end soon.

But why is this war not ending?

Because NATO did not give Ukraine the necessary tools to end it. Or rather, it helped him little by little. If Kiev had the weapons it has now 6 months ago, maybe the war would have ended already.

NATO fears that greater involvement in the conflict will provoke Russia...

Beware of not provoking Russia is an old tactic of Moscow. In reality, NATO has crossed Putin's supposed "red line" several times, sending tanks, fighters, long-range missiles to Kiev, and nothing has happened. The Kremlin's threats to use nuclear weapons are also a bluff.

Thomas Friedman of the "New York Times" argues that the conflict can only end with a truce like the one that ended the Korean War, and in exchange for territories lost by Kiev, with Ukraine's membership in the EU and NATO...

I was with Friedman at a conference in Kiev before he presented this thesis, but I disagree. Allowing Russia to take 1/5 of Ukraine would be as unfair as it would be an admission that aggression is an act worth taking. This would encourage other dictators to invade their neighbors, as Azerbaijan has done in Nagorno-Karabakh, or China is threatening Taiwan. The war in Ukraine can only end with Putin's military defeat.

What do you mean by military defeat?

A huge loss of Ukrainian territories currently occupied by Russia. It is unrealistic to expect Kiev to liberate all occupied territories. But we need a Russian defeat to make Putin politically fragile. As long as he is in Moscow, Ukraine and the West will not be at peace.

Some historians believe that it is impossible for Russia to become a friendly country with the West.

While they were alive, my parents saw Germany and Japan transform from fascist regimes and staunch enemies of the West to democracies and trusted allies. But for this to happen, those regimes had to be defeated.

Would the fall of Putin bring democracy to Moscow?

Not at the moment. To begin with, there will be a fierce struggle between the different currents of the clan that governs Russia: the secret services, the military and the oligarchs. Perhaps in the short term things would continue as they are now. But without Putin, other opportunities would open up, and over time, different forces may appear on the horizon.

Is the real reason Putin invaded Ukraine because he didn't want a Slavic, democratic, pro-Western neighbor?

Yes, that is one of the reasons. The other is the crazy imperialist plan that the Russian president is obsessed with.

What do you say to those who oppose military aid to Ukraine in the name of pacifism?

Wait until someone comes and invades your house, rapes your wife, kills your children, and then tell me if you are a pacifist. This is what Russia did to Ukraine.

What about those who say that NATO promised Moscow that it would not expand in the East?

They were vague promises, only verbal, to a post-communist Russia that looked like a fragile democracy. But the reality today is different. It is not NATO that wants to expand in the East. It is the eastern countries that are begging the alliance, because they are afraid of Moscow.

Could history have been different if the West had had a Marshall Plan to support Russian democracy?

A big mistake was made. After communism fell, Russia adopted a liberalism corrupt to the core, which created great social discontent. Putin was inspired by this to establish his nationalist authoritarianism. But the fate of the Russians is still in their hands. If Ukraine's aggression ends in defeat for Moscow, it cannot be ruled out that one day Russia will resume its path to democracy./ " La Reppublica " - Adapted from CNA