The economic confidence indicator closed 2025 in decline

2026-01-05 15:10:00, Ekonomi CNA

The Economic Sentiment Indicator (ESI) fell by 0.4 points in December. According to the Bank of Albania, the decline in the economic confidence indicator was mainly influenced by the weakening of indicators in the services and industry sectors. The confidence indicator in the trade sector and that of the consumer confidence remained almost unchanged. Only the confidence indicator in the construction sector recorded an increase. However, the current level of the ESI remains about 6 percentage points above the historical average.

The industry confidence indicator registered a slight decrease of 0.2 percentage points in December, influenced by the decreasing expectations for export orders. The level of this indicator currently stands around 2 percentage points above the historical average. The expectations of businesses in this sector for future employment have registered an increase, while the prices of the products they will produce in the future are expected to remain almost the same.

The services confidence indicator fell by 2.8 percentage points in December. Despite the decline, the level of this indicator remains around 6 percentage points above the long-term average. The decline in confidence was influenced by less optimistic assessments by businesses about the current performance of their activity, and about the current level of demand. Expectations for the level of employment in the future have been revised downwards, while future prices have been revised upwards.

The trade confidence indicator for December registered a value almost identical to that of November. Its level remains about 9 percentage points above the historical average. The current value of the indicator was influenced by the declining assessments of current business performance and increasing expectations for employment. Expectations for future business performance and prices registered a decline.

The construction confidence indicator increased by 4.5 percentage points in December. Currently, this indicator stands 16.6 percentage points above the long-term average. The monthly increase was influenced by two components, namely the assessment of businesses for construction activity and that of current orders. Expectations for future prices are estimated to increase.

The consumer confidence indicator for December remained unchanged compared to the previous month, remaining around 1.5 percentage points above the historical average. The opposite effects of its component balances were offset, leaving the level of the aggregate indicator unchanged. The assessment of the future economic situation and current large purchases increased this month, while, on the other hand, expectations for the financial situation and large purchases were less optimistic. Expectations for the general level of prices in the future have been revised downwards. /MONITOR