Figures and perspectives/ What "reigned" in the global economy in 2025

2026-01-03 13:11:00, Ekonomi CNA

The global economy has been facing a slowdown in growth since the beginning of 2025, reflecting a difficult environment with persistent inflation and political uncertainty.

Global stock indexes rose to record highs in the third quarter of 2025, reflecting optimism about corporate earnings even as tech growth slowed. However, at one point in the year, U.S. stocks fell significantly, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq posting sharp declines, due to concerns over trade policy and tariffs.

Figures and perspectives/ What "reigned" in the global economy in 2025

Forint and peso currencies

Emerging market currencies stand out

Emerging market currencies, such as the Hungarian forint, Mexican peso and Brazilian real, gained traction among investors as sharp fluctuations emerged in the global foreign exchange market, an indication of a shift in investment away from the US dollar.

Oil prices were affected by geopolitics

Oil prices rose throughout 2025, driven by US-Venezuela tensions and supply concerns, although concerns about oversupply in the coming years continued to weigh on the market.

European banking sector on the rise thanks to AI

European bank stocks recorded strong growth due to the adoption of Artificial Intelligence, which increases efficiency and reduces operational costs, strengthening the performance of this sector.

Global markets were awaiting key monetary developments from the US Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank, as well as inflation and employment data, which are expected to significantly influence interest rate decisions and market sentiment over the coming year.

Figures and perspectives/ What "reigned" in the global economy in 2025

Forecast - Where the market is heading beyond 2025

The UN Trade and Development Agency predicts that the world economy will expand by just 2.6% in 2025 and 2026, down from 2.9% in 2024. The projections push growth further below the pre-pandemic average of 3% and well below the 4.4% average seen before the 2008-2009 financial crisis.

Major economies are also losing momentum. Growth in the United States is expected to slow to 1.8% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026. China's growth is forecast to fall from 5% in 2025 to 4.6% in 2026, well below the 6.7% average recorded before the pandemic.

The report also highlights the growing importance of financial factors in commodity markets, particularly food systems. For some large food trading companies, more than 75% of revenue now comes from financial operations, not from the movement of grain, coffee, cocoa or other crops.

Figures and perspectives/ What "reigned" in the global economy in 2025

Emerging economies are projected to grow by 4.3%, faster than advanced economies. The global South now generates more than 40% of world output, nearly half of global merchandise trade, and more than half of global investment flows.

However, developing countries hold only 25% of the value of the global financial market.

The Trade and Development Report 2025 outlines a set of practical reforms to reduce financial vulnerability and better align trade, finance and development.

These practical reforms include updating trade rules for today's economy, including services, digital trade, climate action and new industrial strategies; reforming the international monetary system to limit harmful fluctuations in currencies and capital flows; strengthening regional and domestic capital markets so that developing countries can raise affordable long-term financing, as well as improving transparency in trade in goods and expanding access to affordable trade finance, especially for small businesses. /CNA