Putin looking for a bigger war, not a way out of Ukraine

2023-08-10 22:46:00, Blog Alexander Gabuev

" These changes were made as a function of a great war and general mobilization. And the smell of this great war can be felt right now" - declared Andrei Kartapolov, the head of the Defense Committee last week, as the Russian parliament rushed to approve a new law.

The law that allows the Kremlin to send hundreds of thousands more men into combat reveals a sad truth: that far from finding a way out of his disastrous war in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin is preparing for a war of cloud even bigger than the one we are seeing.

It is understandable that many people in Ukraine and in the West want to believe that the president of Russia is trapped in a "corner of the ring". The Ukrainian military is gradually liberating lands occupied by the Russians, and has proven adept at striking deep into enemy territory, even against the Kremlin itself.

The pressure from the sanctions imposed on Russia is increasing significantly. For now, the West remains united in support of Kiev, and flows of modern weapons and money are supporting Ukraine's fight against Russian occupation.

The mutiny a few weeks ago organized by the head of the Wagner mercenary troops, Yevgeny Prigozhin, and the apparent conflicts between the top Russian military commanders, raise hopes that the Kremlin's war machine will be broken.

But things are likely to look very different in the Kremlin, which believes it can afford a protracted war. Russia's economy is expected to post modest growth this year, largely thanks to military factories working around the clock.

Vital components such as microchips much needed by the defense industry are coming from China and other sources. Despite the sanctions, the Kremlin's war chest is still full of cash, thanks to windfalls from energy sales last year, but also to the adaptability of Russian exporters, who have been able to quickly find new customers, who payments mainly in Chinese yuan.

If budget pressures intensify, Russia's central bank could further devalue the ruble, making it easier to make payments to soldiers, defense industry workers and internal security forces, who manage to silence the Russian elite and public, and force them to broadly align with Vladimir Putin's disastrous course.

When it comes to the war itself, the Kremlin still seems unfazed by the Ukrainian military's counteroffensive. Even if Kiev does manage to make a major breakthrough, the Kremlin may see this as something temporary.

Putin relies on the fact that the Russian manpower that can be mobilized is 3-4 times larger than Ukraine's, and the only urgent task is for him to be able to use that resource at will: thus mobilizing much more too many men, to arm them, train them and send them to war.

And this is also the purpose of the new law, which aims to help the Kremlin avoid another official mobilization. From now on, the Russian government can quietly send draft notices to as many men as it deems necessary.

The upper age limit for compulsory military service will be raised from 27 to 30, and may be raised again in the future. Once an electronic call-up notice is issued, Russia's borders will be immediately closed to those on the list to prevent a mass exodus of men of military age like the one that occurred in Russia last fall .

Meanwhile, the penalties for refusing to serve have also been toughened. These moves, combined with large state investments in expanding weapons production capacity, should help Putin build a larger and better-equipped military.

A parallel tactic is to suffocate Ukraine's economy. Knowing that Ukraine's budget is highly dependent on vital financial support provided by its Western allies, the Kremlin wants to deny Kiev all sources of revenue.

Therefore, Moscow has not only withdrawn from the Wheat Agreement, which allowed Ukrainian agricultural exports to move through the Black Sea, but has also launched massive airstrikes against Ukrainian ports to thwart any chance of reviving this agreement.

A similar logic underpins Russia's airstrikes against civilian infrastructure. They aim to make Ukraine's cities uninhabitable and hinder reconstruction efforts. The Kremlin hopes that the rapid rebuilding of the Russian military and the gradual destruction of Ukraine's economy and armed forces will lead to growing disillusionment in the West, and a consequent decline in material support for Kiev.

Therefore, to accelerate this process and break the will of the West, Moscow is using threats of escalation, including the expansion of the conflict into NATO territory through Belarus with the help of Wagner's mercenaries, who have already been stationed there since the end of in June after the short-term rebellion against the Kremlin.

Vladimir Putin has made many fatal mistakes. But as long as he is at the helm in Russia, Moscow will devote its still vast resources to fulfilling its ultimate obsession, which is the destruction and subjugation of Ukraine. As Western leaders discuss policies to support Ukraine in the third year of this ugly war, any long-term strategy must also take this reality into account . / " Financial Times " - Translated and adapted by CNA

Note: Alexander Gabuev, director of the "Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center" based in Berlin.