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Only an armed uprising can topple Putin and transform Russia into a democratic country

2023-07-01 21:50:00, Blog Mikhail Khodorkovsky

Only an armed uprising can topple Putin and transform Russia into a democratic

Despite the failure, Yevgeny Prigozhin's coup attempt was a shocking moment for Russia, as it exposed the vulnerability of President Vladimir Putin. During the hours of rebellion, I argued that Russia's democratic opposition should welcome the opportunity presented by the coup, not because Prigozhin is our friend or ally - because he is a thug and war criminal - but because Putin's overthrow can only happen through force. .

This was the second time that Putin has faced a truly revolutionary moment. The first was the large popular protests of 2011-2013. However at that time, the democratic opposition was unable to take advantage.

We must be aware that the fall of the Putin regime and the creation of a better Russia will not happen through the ballot box or other peaceful means, but will require an armed uprising. We can either be prepared for it or we have to leave everything to chance.

Only an armed people can overthrow this dictatorship. The nature of the coup attempt was not entirely unpredictable. In fact, I have previously emphasized the danger posed to Putin by the emergence of thousands of individuals who, as a result of his criminal invasion of Ukraine, have weapons and combat experience in their hands.

I said at the time that if the Ukrainian army broke through the Russian front lines, a mass of fighters retreating to Russia would threaten the regime, just as the return of troops from the front in World War I hastened the fall of the Tsar and the coming to power of the Bolsheviks.

If Prigozhin had succeeded, it would be naive to think that the coup would have brought about the democratization of the country, the release of political prisoners and the announcement of free and fair elections.

If we in the democratic opposition wish to achieve these goals, then we must not only support the overthrow of the current regime, but we must also be ready to vigorously defend our democratic interests when it falls. At this stage, our freedom will not be won by preparing for elections.

However, what the coup attempt made clear is that Putin is currently a "lame duck" whose days are numbered. It has dealt a potentially fatal blow to the legitimacy of his regime, in the eyes of Russian elites and Russian society in general.

He has been exposed as a weak leader, unable to control his inner circle and security forces, and who hides when threatened. Far from being a master of manipulation and fomenting discord among those beneath him, he risks being toppled by forces he has created but can now no longer control.

To the general population, the ease with which Prigozhin's mercenaries took over Rostov-on-Don, a city in southern Russia that serves as a key logistics base for Russian forces in Ukraine, belies the idea that Putin has massive public support.

Meanwhile, Russian elites cannot see it as a guarantor of their status, stability and prosperity. The president can no longer control his troops, and the population no longer believes the myths he spreads about his unnecessary and criminal war.

Prigozhin understood Putin's weakness, the problematic state of his war machine and the crumbling morale of his troops. He wouldn't have rebelled if he didn't think he had a serious chance of success. We saw how the inevitable fall of the regime is likely to play out.

The democratic opposition and our natural allies in the West must prepare for the overthrow of the regime and cannot allow the thug currently in charge of Russia's nuclear arsenal to be replaced by another thug.

The West must believe in Russia's democratic opposition and empower it so that when the regime collapses, we will be able to seize the moment. Western powers should recognize our opposition institutions, such as the Russian Action Committee, as legitimate representatives of Russian society, giving us the opportunity to better compete with armed "patriots" such as Prigozhin.

At the same time, there should be no let-up in Western support for Ukraine. He must continue arming the Ukrainians to push them to victory. Putin's forces are in chaos and Ukraine must be fully supported to gain the upper hand.

However, inside Russia it is time to admit that the failure of the war that started, has made the fall of Putin inevitable. If the West ever wants to see a Russia capable of being a responsible actor on the world stage, it must lend its support to the democratic opposition.

Meanwhile, the latter must prepare for what comes next, and for the bitter reality that the next Russian revolution will not be velvet (peaceful). The regime and the forces that will overthrow it will be armed.

We may hate Prigozhin, but we cannot ignore the fact that he has demonstrated the potential for successful sabotage of Putin's pernicious regime. Regime change is coming. It is impossible to say exactly when. But one thing is certain: we must be ready for it.

Note: Mikhail Khodorkovsky, former political prisoner and director of Yuko, a Russian oil company. / " The Economist " -  Translated and adapted by CNA.al





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