The regime won the next match. The showdown continues

2025-05-14 13:26:00, Opinione CNA

by Artan Hoxha

Edi Rama's hybrid regime - much more autocratic than democratic - won the next electoral confrontation. The result was prepared by the events of the last four years (and not only) and was predicted in time by several public and private polls. The result of May 11, 2025 is the epilogue of everything that has developed above and below the mat.

The first piece of data worth analyzing is the number of resident voters on May 11, 2025, around 1.46 million, compared to resident voters on April 25, 2021, 1.66 million, a full 200 thousand fewer voters or around 12% fewer in 4 years. Here I recall that in 2021, due to the COVID19 pandemic, we will have had an almost negligible number of immigrants who have been reluctant to come to vote here, especially since the Government closed the border with Greece and, most likely, more immigrants may have physically come and voted this year in Albania (with so many low-cost flights one way and two or more jobs) than four years ago.

The second piece of information is that in 2025, with a residential population of under 2.4 million inhabitants (according to the 2023 Census), over 80 thousand more people (residents) voted than in 2005 when the residential population was over 3 million inhabitants (according to the 2001 Census), and those elections were very important and emotional, and the rate of participation of residents in the elections was (and has always been) very high . Therefore, most likely, in the 2025 elections we could have achieved a Guinness record, perhaps even more than 90% residential participation rate, thanks to a patronage system through the kulac and/or kërbac, with capillary extension in the territory, as a combination of militant-political, militant-administrative and militant-criminal structures, which have attracted or pushed many people from the category of ordinary abstainers to vote, in addition to those with weak ties to the opposition, troublemakers and easily breakable people of all kinds, although dissatisfied with the regime. This data shows that the emigration of voters will have been much more than 200 thousand.

The third piece of data is the systematic deviation of the survey samples regarding the percentage of 2021 opposition voters, whether PD, SMI or other allied parties, this deviation is 10-12% less than the official 2021 result of the then opposition or equivalent to a reduction of approximately ¼ of the opposition's size or votes compared to 2021, this deviation is inexplicable at all by the theory of random error, while in each sample, SP voters resulted at or above the 2021 vote level.

The fourth piece of data, which comes from many studies, is related to the breadth and depth of economic inequality, while several surveys showed that inequality is strongly correlated with the 2021 vote. Thus, according to the Euronews Eurobarometer of January 2024, about 60% of SP 2021 voters reported that their family's economic situation was good or very good compared to a year earlier, while only about 30% of opposition or neutral voters reported this. The hope for an improvement in the situation over the coming year was in the ratio of 70/20/30 percent according to the three categories of those voters. These differentiations in relation to the 2021 vote result in continuity on many issues, thus creating the appearance of a structure of differentiation and deep inequality of status, behavior and perception in correlation with political affiliation. Therefore, the different political position is transformed into economic and social differentiation, as an expression and result of (respectively negative/positive) political discrimination.

The fifth piece of evidence is the evidence in surveys of the fear of being interviewed or of showing one's vote, as a parallel to the fear in the electorate of the surveillance system of capillary patronage that, while offering you a cake or waving a whip, has created the psychosis of being able to verify whether you voted for them or not after you have accepted the cake or bowed to the whip. Most likely, over 20% of voters have voted under this pressure and psychosis.

Regarding these last two, there is a wealth of data, facts, and daily events, reported operationally or through the media, that confirm both political-economic discrimination and fear of pressure from patronage networks, such as the "territorial army" that combs every nook and cranny, in the service of the regime.

Meanwhile, the entire ongoing attack against the party opposition, both by the state in service of the resurgent government and all the local factors and actors connected, willingly or unwillingly, to the regime, in alliance and coordination with the neo-liberal American Biden administration, supported also by the cynical indifference, occasionally anti-opposition proactivity of the European neo-liberals, kept the party opposition, the DP first, but also the PL, in strong and protracted conflicts, while giving undeserved praise and merit to the government, thus weakening or killing the hope of the opposition people for a victory over the regime, all of this similar to the discouraging effects of the artillery and aircraft bombardment of the territory and ranks of the opposition political "army".

In these circumstances, over the course of four years, two residential electoral currents were created to the detriment of the opposition and in favor of the regime. One current was that of massive and asymmetrical emigration , in deeply unfavorable relations on the opposition side, which deeply and widely eroded both the opposition's 2021 electoral base compared to that of the regime and the electoral base of young voters. The other current is that of submission out of fear, giving the vote to the regime under the direct pressure of territorial patronage and loss of hope while seeing the frontal, strong and multiple "bombardments" on the political opposition.

Regarding diaspora voters, while they were directly or indirectly influenced through their family members here through the patronage system but also through powerful propaganda, it must first be considered that the vast majority of diaspora voters are militant in nature - self-evident due to the relatively small size compared to the entire body of this body this time, as well as the circumstances and method of registration for voting - while the regime had many times the opportunity and means to mobilize its own much earlier and much more strongly than the opposition, which best explains the even deeper result of this body compared to residential voters.

If we add to this the massive and brazen use of state funds, powers and institutions by granting last-minute favors to broad social categories or more specific groups, one of the most important conclusions in the OSCE/ODIHR preliminary report, in addition to the rampant propaganda, the 2025 electoral result becomes clear to anyone with their head on their shoulders and their mind inside their skull.

Despite this result, the opposition begins the new opposition mandate in qualitatively different circumstances compared to the previous mandate. The opposition has achieved internal compactness and has gained experience of harmonious coexistence in diversity. Relations with the American administration, from hostile with Biden, are now understanding and friendly with Trump, as well as with the community of European People's Parties.

The opposition on May 11th touched the end , an end that would have been much deeper and darker than that if it had not united in the fall of 2023 and the changes in America and Europe had not occurred starting in November 2024 - as predicted since the summer of 2023 based on the results of local elections by OPENDATA experts.

The regime is strong until 5 minutes before it falls. It is not overthrown by a vote before it is overthrown morally and conjuncturally. After the moral and conjunctural collapse occurs, the voter is freed from the psychosis of fear, his hope awakens and with his vote he shatters the regime. Society needs to gain the confidence that the regime can be defeated. We are at the beginning of creating this premise. If it continues like it started a few months ago, events will flow by themselves. The political opposition must get ready as soon as possible to adapt and anticipate new and increasingly favorable circumstances. I believe it will do so. But anyone who wants the defeat of the regime, while it is not yet consolidated, must make all the efforts they can, on their own without being asked.

Alone or together, better together./CNA