Iran weighs response after activation of sanctions reinstatement mechanism

2025-08-29 17:17:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

The Iranian leadership is considering a series of countermeasures following the decision by France, Germany and the United Kingdom - a group known as the E3 - to formally activate the mechanism for the automatic reinstatement of United Nations sanctions, due to "non-compliance" with the 2015 nuclear deal.

Hardliners in the leadership favor confrontation: further restricting inspectors, accelerating uranium enrichment, even threatening the sea lanes in the Strait of Hormuz. Some have suggested suspending talks with the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to review cooperation.

A much-discussed option is to withdraw from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT). But others favor dialogue.

The E3 group's decision, taken just weeks before their authority to act was due to expire, sets in motion a 30-day deadline: if a compromise is not reached, all UN sanctions that were lifted under the nuclear deal will be reinstated.

The E3 ministers said they had no choice. Iran's growing — and unaccounted — stockpiles of highly enriched uranium, coupled with tighter restrictions on inspectors, have left little room for renewed engagement. The United States has welcomed the European powers' decision.

Tehran has condemned the decision, calling it "unjustified and illegal" and accusing the Europeans of violating their commitments. Iran has also vowed to take "action."

Withdrawing from the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty would be one of the most dramatic steps. Signed in 1968 and in force since 1970, the Treaty prohibits nuclear-weapon states from sharing their arsenals and requires non-nuclear-weapon states not to build them, while guaranteeing access to peaceful nuclear technology. Iran has been a party to the treaty since it was signed.

The withdrawal would take months and is seen primarily as a means of pressure rather than an immediate policy, but it would have great symbolism.

Hardline lawmakers in Iran’s conservative-dominated parliament have already drafted a “triple urgency” bill to expedite the withdrawal. If introduced, it would be debated, voted on and reviewed by the Guardian Council in a single day. And it highlights how quickly Tehran can escalate the situation.

The E3 has offered some leeway, offering Iran a six-month reprieve from sanctions if it restores full inspector access and resumes talks. But with an economy battered by sanctions and mismanagement, and Russia and China unable to block the process because they cannot veto it, Tehran faces difficult choices.

Although a last-minute diplomatic breakthrough is theoretically possible, domestic politics and international skepticism make such an outcome unlikely, especially given Iran's reluctance to give the impression that it is backing down under pressure./ REL