Rama aims for a total of 1 million votes and 84 mandates for the SP, but...

2025-01-10 14:24:00, Opinione Eduard Zaloshnja

When he appointed the political leaders in the districts, Rama declared that with the participation of immigrants for the first time in the elections, the SP alone should get up to 1 million votes (compared to the 800,000 local votes that it usually received together with small allied parties). Also, he stated that the SP has the opportunity to secure at least 84 mandates in the elections of May 11, 2025.

From the county polls that I presented last night on Report TV (https://shqiptarja.com/lajm/neser-sondazhi-ne-report-tv-si-ndahen-mandatet-ne-elbasan-fier-berat-korce-e-vlore -how-would-be-the-vote-of-immigrants-in-these-5-districts?r=kh1) resulted that, if the elections had been held before Christmas, the SP would have secured 80 mandates alone.

While from a rough extrapolation of the percentages in the districts, it turned out that about 1 million voters were ready to vote for the SP - about 700 thousand here and about 300 thousand from abroad.

Although at first sight it seems as if the target of 1 million votes has been reached as of today, it is the most difficult to materialize on May 11 (compared to the target of 84 mandates). And here's why:

As the possibility is great that the votes here will increase as the campaign heats up (they can go from about 700 thousand today for the SP, to about 800 thousand on May 11), the materialization of the immigrants' votes from words to deeds divides an entire sea…

Thus, someone in emigration can answer today in the survey that he will vote for the SP, but to really do this he must first register in the electronic application of the CEC, then receive the ballot from it, fill it in and to go to the post office to post it. It's not the same as leaving your house in the morning here on election day, and going to the neighborhood school to vote...

In short, 1 million total votes for the SP on May 11 seems a difficult target.

As for the mandates, even though today the SP has only 80 mandates (according to the above-mentioned polls in the districts), the possibility of reaching 84 mandates on May 11 is great. The reason why the SP does not reach 84 mandates as of today is that the new parties come out with 12 mandates in total in the polls in the districts. But electoral history shows us that new parties lose their votes when election day comes. And the hypothetical mandates that come to them in the polls in the months leading up to the election may simply vanish, going to the two major parties on Election Day…