Biden and Trump again towards the confrontation that could shake American politics

2024-01-02 19:47:00, Kosova & Bota CNA

Biden and Trump again towards the confrontation that could shake American

Trump and Biden

US presidential elections have been rocked in recent years by economic disasters, shocking blunders, secret videos and the pandemic. But despite the elaborateness that characterized these campaigns, the volatility of this year's presidential election has few parallels in modern times and poses major challenges for the future of American democracy.

The judiciary has never been so intertwined with a presidential election since the Supreme Court virtually decided the outcome of the election in favor of Republican George W. Bush over Democratic rival Al Gore.

In the coming weeks, the Supreme Court is expected to consider whether states can remove former President Donald Trump's name from the ballot because of the role he played in the riots at the Capitol on January 6, 2021. Meanwhile, a federal appeals court is considering former President Trump's argument that he enjoys immunity from prosecution.

The moves come as prosecutors from New York, Washington and Atlanta work on 91 charges stemming from four criminal cases for almost everything from his role in the riots to efforts to overturn the outcome of the 2020 election. and payments to ensure the silence of a pornographic actress.

Depending on how former President Trump's appeals go, he could appear before the court as early as March 4, the day before the so-called Super Tuesday, when a large number of American states hold primary elections. This could create an unprecedented situation where he can become the official candidate for president of the Republican Party while he is in the courtroom.

On the Democratic side, President Joe Biden is seeking re-election, while the high inflation that characterized much of his first term appears to be easing. But that's not enough to reassure voters, or assuage widespread concerns on both sides of politics, that at 81 he is simply too old for the job.

And at least three serious candidates, who have started the campaign as independent candidates for president, could alienate the election campaign and draw on the support of independent voters who played a key role in Mr. Biden's victory in 2020.

With such uncertainties, few people think that the traditional rules of politics will apply to this year's elections. Jim Messina, who ran former President Barack Obama's re-election campaign, said former President Trump could even beat President Biden in the fall election, even while in prison.

"We just don't know," said Mr. Messina. "The whole world knows, especially me, that this election will have a really, really close result."

Consequences for issues such as abortion, immigration and the role of the US in the world

The outcome of the election will have long-term consequences on almost everything from the future of abortion rights and immigration policies to the role of the United States in the world. A victory for Mr Trump would raise the possibility of an abandonment of Ukraine as it tries to repel an onslaught of Russian forces. Domestic politics could also test President Biden's commitment to Israel, a policy that risks undermining support among young and black voters who are a vital part of his coalition.

One of the certain things is that President Biden has almost won the official candidacy on behalf of the Democratic Party. He has so far faced only token opposition in this year's primaries, despite deep concerns within his own party about his physical and mental health. And although some rivals are fighting to stop Mr Trump, he is well positioned to win the official nomination on behalf of the Republican Party for a third time in a row.

The extent of opposition to Mr. Trump within the Republican Party will become clearer on January 15, when the process of nominating the official candidate begins in Iowa. Former President Trump has a solid lead in most polls nationally, although former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley and Florida Governor Ron DeSantis are battling to hold him off.

However, this has not been easy. Mr. DeSantis has embraced culture war themes and is competing for the same segment of voters as former President Trump. While Ms. Haley's profile as a more moderate, sensitive candidate was compromised last week when she was asked about the cause of the Civil War and she did not mention slavery.

Allies of Mr. DeSantis and Ms. Haley privately acknowledge that their best chance to get the official nomination from Mr. Trump would come in July during the Republican convention in Wisconsin.

Many leaders in both parties are already convinced that former President Trump will be the official nominee of the Republican Party. More than 90 Republican lawmakers, 18 senators and seven governors have already endorsed Mr Trump. Ms. Haley and Mr. DeSantis have secured the support of just six Republican lawmakers, no senators and two governors.

"It will be among the primary elections that will be concluded the fastest", said in an interview the lawmaker Elise Stefanik, who supports Mr. Trump. "I am now focused on the general elections... There will be a political earthquake in November."

Biden vs. Trump

Public opinion polls strongly suggest that voters do not want a rematch between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden.

Shumica e amerikanëve në moshë madhore (56%) do të ishin “shumë” apo “disi” të pakënaqur me zotin Biden si kandidat zyrtar të Partisë Demokrate, sipas një anketimi të bërë muajin e kaluar nga Qendra NORC e agjencisë së lajmeve Associated Press. Po kështu, një shumicë prej 58% u shprehën shumë apo disi të pakënaqur me përzgjedhjen e zotit Trump, si kandidat zyrtar për Partinë Republikane.

Ndoshta për shkak të kësaj apatie, disa votues thjesht nuk mendojnë se zoti Biden dhe zoti Trump, do të jenë kandidatët për president, megjithë evidencën për të kundërtën.

Rreziku ndaj demokracisë

Ndërsa shqetësimet për zotin Biden kanë të bëjnë me moshën e tij, zoti Trump ka përqafuar gjithnjë e më shumë mesazhe autoritare që shërbejnë si një paralajmërim i qartë për planet e tij për të zhbërë normat demokratike pas rikthimit në Shtëpinë e Bardhë.

Si një reflektim i udhëheqësve të fortë në histori, zoti Trump e ka përkufizuar fushatën e tij si një shpagim dhe ka folur haptazi për përdorimin e pushtetit të qeverisë ndaj kundërshtarëve politikë. Ai ka përdorur retorikën e përdorur dikur nga Adolf Hitleri për të thënë se emigrantët që hyjnë ilegalisht në Shtetet e Bashkuara “po helmojnë gjakun e vendit tonë”. Ai tha muajin e kaluar në kanalin televiziv Fox News se nuk do të bëhej diktator, “me përjashtim të ditës së parë”. Dhe ai përdori në median e tij sociale javën e kaluar fjalë si “hakmarrje”, “pushtet” dhe “diktaturë”.

Presidenti Biden, ashtu si pjesa më e madhe e partisë së tij, ka shprehur shqetësime për të ardhmen e demokracisë në rast se ish-Presidenti Trump do të rikthehej në Shtëpinë e Bardhë, por kjo nuk ka ndihmuar shumë për të përmirësuar kuotat e tij në anketime. Anketimet e hershme tregojnë mangësi ndër segmentët kryesorë të koalicionit të tij, përfshirë ndër votuesit me ngjyrë dhe të rinjtë.

Zyrtarët e ekipit elektoral të Presidentit Biden nuk frikësohen se baza e tij do të kalonte në mbështetje të ish-Presidentit Trump në zgjedhjet e përgjithshme, por ata shprehin privatisht shqetësimin se disa prej mbështetësve demokratë mund të mos votojnë fare. Zyrtarët shpresojnë se arritjet e Presidentit Biden, si kalimi i legjislacionit historik për kontrollin ndaj armëve, ndryshimin klimatik dhe infrastrukturën, do të ndihmojnë për të tejkaluar shqetësimet për moshën e tij.

Zyrtarët e fushatës së zotit Biden besojnë se në fund të ditës votuesit do ta mbështesin presidentin, kur ta kuptojnë se ish-Presidenti Trump ka shanse reale për t’u rikthyer në Shtëpinë e Bardhë.

Zgjedhje mes dy alternativave

Kryebashkiaku i Atlantas, Andre Dickens, i cili është anëtar i grupit këshillimor për Presidentin Biden, thotë se zyrtarët e fushatës elektorale “e dinë se nuk mund të marrin për të mirëqenë asnjë votë” dhe se kjo është arsyeja përse po investohet shumë tek përpjekjet për të mobilizuar koalicionin e zotit Biden, të përbërë nga persona me prejardhje të shumëllojshme.

"It will be a choice between a president who has achieved historic results for the American people and someone who poses an existential threat to our democracy and our freedoms," Mr Dickens said. "We will win in November after we have fully presented our view, after we have explained what is important and we have made the choice clear."

Meanwhile, there is a deep sense of uncertainty on the ground in Iowa and New Hampshire, where candidates for the Republican primaries in particular have paid high attention to voters throughout the past year.

Rodney Martell, a 65-year-old New Hampshire Republican, says he's ready for the polls to begin. He supports Ms. Haley in the primary but says he would support Mr. Trump in the general election if he had no other choice — even if Mr. Trump is found guilty in court.

Mr. Martell does not think that this year's elections will be a rematch between Mr. Trump and Mr. Biden, but adds that "honestly, if this type of race results again, I think it could quickly become an unpleasant situation."

Susie Fortuna in Iowa gives a similar assessment as she follows a Mrs. Haley campaign. Ms. Fortuna is from Michigan but was in Iowa visiting relatives.

Nor does she think that Mr. Biden and Mr. Trump will be the official candidates of their parties. She says that this political year gives her a "disturbing" feeling.

"I think there are things we honestly don't know yet," she says. / VOA